LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Posts Tagged ‘Nikkei’

Key reversal levels for week of February 17, 2014

Posted by Danny on February 16, 2014

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,244.02 3,887.92 5.84 58 37.38
S&P 500 1,838.63 1,762.35 2.22 63 29.82
Nikkei 14,313.03 15,278.16 -0.10 1 -2.29
FTSE 100 6,663.60 6,694.57 0.18 2 2.35
DAX 9,662.40 9,029.39 3.71 31 17.29
Bonds (TLT) 106.58 104.74 2.49 3 -0.60
Gold (spot) 1,318.25 1,257.77 -0.62 0 0.00
$EURUSD 1.3689 1.3475 0.40 29 3.06
Oil (CL) 100.30 96.34 -0.14 0 0.00

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the weekly key reversal levels:

* Gold has closed above its weekly key reversal level and is now in bullish mode for the first time in 60 weeks.

* Crude oil has also turned bullish on the weekly level.

Latest daily key reversal levels:

14/02/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,244.02 4,111.21 4.59 5 2.88 5
S&P 500 1,838.63 1,792.22 3.77 3 1.02 5
Nikkei 14,313.03 15,120.36 -6.26 14 -5.16 12
FTSE 100 6,663.60 6,585.68 1.62 3 -0.14 9
DAX 9,662.40 9,342.27 2.42 3 1.65 5
Bonds (TLT) 106.58 105.80 -1.40 25 2.71 2
Gold (spot) 1,318.25 1,254.87 4.82 25 5.63 1
$EURUSD 1.3689 1.3580 1.59 5 0.54 5
Oil (CL) 100.30 97.12 5.68 17 3.73 1

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the daily key reversal levels:

* Nearly all stock indexes are rallying nicely with continued rising MoM. Exception is the Nikkei, which has been acting significantly weaker since the start of the year.

* Gold, oil and $EURUSD are also continuing to rise.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 4390 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 6110
DAX 9800 10120 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1298 1448 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Latest developments:

* No new targets.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.

Good luck, Danny

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for February 12

Posted by Danny on February 12, 2014

Latest daily key reversal levels:

key reversals

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W: weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments:

* S&P 500, FTSE 100 and DAX have closed above their key reversal levels yesterday and are thus back into rally mode. This points to a continuation of the bull market. The Nikkei continues to lag.

* It remains to be seen if the rally will be strong enough to turn also the weekly MoM back to the upside. When that happens we will be back to a fully bullish picture for most stock markets.

* Gold is now testing its Top1 target at $1298. I would expect some selling to emerge at that level. If gold can close the week above $1303.82 then it will go bullish for the first time in more than a year.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter.

Danny

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of February 10, 2014

Posted by Danny on February 9, 2014

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,125.86 3,876.75 6.02 57 33.56
S&P 500 1,797.02 1,760.02 2.74 62 26.88
Nikkei 14,462.41 15,325.40 1.95 0 0.00
FTSE 100 6,571.70 6,692.66 0.58 1 0.94
DAX 9,301.92 9,013.68 4.02 30 12.92
Bonds (TLT) 106.79 104.65 1.86 2 -0.40
Gold (spot) 1,266.95 1,303.82 -1.73 59 -23.53
$EURUSD 1.3631 1.3464 0.47 28 2.63
Oil (CL) 99.88 100.10 -1.09 15 2.04

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the weekly key reversal levels:

* The Nikkei has gone bearish on the weekly level. Momentum (MoM) continues to go down for all covered stock indexes, so it’s still too early to declare the end of the correction.

Latest daily key reversal levels:

7/02/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,125.86 4,064.21 -5.34 0 0.00 33
S&P 500 1,797.02 1,802.99 -6.43 10 0.33 8
Nikkei 14,462.41 15,242.23 -9.33 10 -4.17 11
FTSE 100 6,571.70 6,638.05 -6.94 10 -1.38 12
DAX 9,301.92 9,408.58 -6.02 10 -0.93 24
Bonds (TLT) 106.79 105.71 5.80 20 2.91 2
Gold (spot) 1,266.95 1,239.88 0.97 20 1.52 29
$EURUSD 1.3631 1.3539 -1.97 0 0.00 33
Oil (CL) 99.88 95.83 3.48 12 3.30 29

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the daily key reversal levels:

* Note: We now try to post the daily key reversal levels every day on Twitter or here on the blog when there are extra comments about them.

* Nasdaq is the first stock index to close above its daily key reversal level and get back into bullish mode. This could still prove to be a bull trap. We have to see if other markets go into rally mode as well.

* $EURUSD is back into rally mode.

* For gold and oil we see momentum (MoM) turn back up, which points to a continuation of their recent rally.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 4390 3797 * 3530
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1641 *
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 6110
DAX 9800 10120 8715 8510 *
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 * 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1298 1448 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 * 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Latest developments:

* There is a new Bottom1 target for Nasdaq at 3797.

* For S&P 500 there is a new Bottom2 target at 1641.

* If stock markets continue to rebound then look for a retest of the Top1 targets. If we get another swing to the downside, then look for the Bottom1 targets to be reached.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter.

Good luck, Danny

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Key reversal levels for week of January 27, 2014

Posted by Danny on January 26, 2014

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,128.17 3,863.36 8.06 55 33.63
S&P 500 1,790.29 1,761.10 5.94 60 26.40
Nikkei 15,391.56 14,815.61 5.97 61 62.60
FTSE 100 6,663.70 6,570.60 2.27 4 -1.29
DAX 9,392.02 8,999.01 6.41 28 14.01
Bonds (TLT) 107.48 104.27 -1.04 0 0.00
Gold (spot) 1,269.80 1,309.92 -2.92 57 -23.36
$EURUSD 1.3670 1.3460 1.54 26 2.92
Oil (CL) 96.64 100.20 -2.12 13 -1.27

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction) (for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ ) (for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Stock market weakness that started showing up a few weeks ago is continuing. Weekly MoM remains down for most indexes, and some markets are coming close to their weekly key reversal levels. At this point it is only a pullback, but if weekly key reversal levels get broken to the downside it marks the start of a bear market or at least a more prolonged correction.

* Bonds (TLT) have turned bullish.

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,128.17 4,185.27 4.21 0 0.00
S&P 500 1,790.29 1,835.86 -0.16 0 0.00
Nikkei 15,391.56 15,817.08 -2.37 0 0.00
FTSE 100 6,663.70 6,759.83 3.27 0 0.00
DAX 9,392.02 9,590.68 3.97 0 0.00
Bonds (TLT) 107.48 104.25 8.68 10 3.58
Gold (spot) 1,269.80 1,231.13 2.48 10 1.75
$EURUSD 1.3670 1.3580 -1.26 1 -0.18
Oil (CL) 96.64 94.53 2.33 2 -0.05

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction) (for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ ) (for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* All covered stock indexes have broken below their daily key reversal levels and are now in declining mode. Whether this will be yet another brief pullback or turn into something bigger remains to be seen. As long as MoM is to the downside there is no reason to buy.

* Bonds (TLT) and gold are continuing their recent rally.

* $EURUSD and Crude Oil are back into rally mode.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 4390 3530 3210
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1576
Nikkei 17220 13860 * 12940 *
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 6110
DAX 9800 10120 8715 7870
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1298 1448 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 105 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* A new Bottom1 target for Nikkei at 13860

* Stock indexes tested their Top1 targets and failed to break above them. This is their second failure, so now we get a move to the downside. We can start watching for the Bottom1 targets to be tested in some markets.

* For gold, oil, Euro and bonds we can now set sights on their Top1 targets.

 

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck, Danny

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of December 30, 2013

Posted by Danny on December 30, 2013

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,156.58 3,797.02 8.11 51 34.55
S&P 500 1,841.40 1,734.06 7.21 56 30.01
Nikkei 16,178.94 14,360.49 6.90 57 70.92
FTSE 100 6,750.89 6,499.67 0.42 0 0.00
DAX 9,589.38 8,853.05 6.89 24 16.41
Bonds (TLT) 101.81 107.04 -2.65 32 -12.13
Gold (spot) 1,212.09 1,335.73 -4.62 53 -26.84
$EURUSD 1.3744 1.3422 3.06 22 3.48
Oil (CL) 100.32 101.19 -2.62 9 2.49

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* FTSE 100 has broken back above its weekly key reversal level. MoM remains down however.

* Nasdaq and DAX have upward MoM again, so we are almost back to a fully bullish picture for the covered stock indexes.

* Oil is coming very close to its weekly key reversal level, so could go in bullish mode soon.

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,156.58 4,033.78 8.79 53 10.33
S&P 500 1,841.40 1,792.62 8.28 6 1.79
Nikkei 16,178.94 15,406.55 8.05 7 2.34
FTSE 100 6,750.89 6,562.77 5.22 3 2.18
DAX 9,589.38 9,144.65 6.92 6 4.89
Bonds (TLT) 101.81 103.52 -1.92 2 -0.53
Gold (spot) 1,212.09 1,244.92 -4.09 38 -7.59
$EURUSD 1.3744 1.3627 0.45 24 1.45
Oil (CL) 100.32 96.94 5.15 16 3.07

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* On the daily level we remain with a fully bullish picture for the stock indexes.

* Bonds (TLT) have broken back below their daily key reversal level, so the rally was very short-lived.

* Gold is improving again with MoM back to the upside. Now needs a close above 1244.90 to go into rally mode.

* $EURUSD seem to have survived the test of its daily key reversal level and is looking up again.

* Oil continues to rally.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1820 1870 1755 1576
Nikkei 15850 17220 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 6110
DAX 9480 9800 8715 7870
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1153 1075
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 105 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* Stock indexes are breaking above their Top1 targets. This means we can start watching for the Top2 targets.

* Bonds (TLT) have fallen back to their Bottom1 target at 102. I would start watching for the next target at 96.25

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of December 23, 2013

Posted by Danny on December 23, 2013

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,104.74 3,774.47 8.10 50 32.88
S&P 500 1,818.31 1,723.73 7.28 55 28.38
Nikkei 15,870.41 14,183.39 5.84 56 67.66
FTSE 100 6,606.60 6,628.19 0.44 1 2.59
DAX 9,400.17 8,797.28 6.73 23 14.11
Bonds (TLT) 104.25 107.25 -2.30 31 -10.02
Gold (spot) 1,202.80 1,347.13 -4.19 52 -27.40
$EURUSD 1.3666 1.3397 2.85 21 2.89
Oil (CL) 99.32 101.22 -3.71 8 1.47

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* No major changes on the weekly level.

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,104.74 3,995.15 2.27 49 8.95
S&P 500 1,818.31 1,780.62 1.33 2 0.52
Nikkei 15,870.41 15,230.35 1.99 2 0.39
FTSE 100 6,606.60 6,540.76 -2.40 0 0.00
DAX 9,400.17 9,096.41 1.09 4 2.82
Bonds (TLT) 104.25 102.96 -1.02 0 0.00
Gold (spot) 1,202.80 1,259.40 -3.24 33 -8.30
$EURUSD 1.3666 1.3610 2.44 20 0.88
Oil (CL) 99.32 96.14 4.11 12 2.04

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* All covered stock indexes are back to rally mode with rising momentum (MoM). This points to a continuation of the bull market.

* Bonds (TLT) have broken above their daily key reversal level and are now in rally mode as well.

* Gold has failed to get above its key reversal level and now MoM has turned down again. Continuing its decline.

* $EURUSD is weakening. MoM has turned down and the Euro is holding barely above its daily key reversal.

* Oil continues to rally.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1820 1870 1755 * 1576
Nikkei 15850 17220 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 * 6110
DAX 9480 9800 8715 * 7870
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1153 1075
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 105 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* There is a new Bottom1 target for S&P 500 at 1755.

* For the FTSE 100 the Bottom1 target is refined to 6230 (from 6205)

* For the DAX there is a new Bottom1 target at 8715.

* Nearly all covered stock indexes are coming very close to their Top1 targets again. Can they break above?

* Gold has fallen below its Bottom1 target at 1215. The next downside target is now 1153.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck and happy holidays,

Danny

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Key reversal levels for week of August 12, 2013

Posted by Danny on August 11, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

  Status Key (W) Mom (W) Mode Key (D) Mom (D)
Nasdaq BULL S: 3375 Up RALLY S: 3597 Down
S&P 500 BULL S: 1586.80 Up RALLY S: 1675.70 Down
Nikkei BULL S: 12623 Down * DECLINE R: 14207 Down
FTSE 100 BULL S: 6296 Up RALLY S: 6508 Down
DAX BULL S: 7925 Up RALLY S: 8227 Down
Bonds (TLT) BEAR R: 114.34 Up * DECLINE R: 107.81 Up
Gold (spot) BEAR R: 1422 Up DECLINE R: 1314.60 Up *
Euro/US$ BULL S: 1.3001 Up RALLY S: 1.3171 Up
Crude Oil(CL) BULL S: 97.10 Up RALLY * S: 103.59 Down

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* The weekly momentum for the Nikkei index has turned down, which means the continuation of its bull status is in question. The 12623 level is now the major key reversal level, which has to hold on a weekly closing basis.

* All covered stock markets have seen their daily momentum turn down last week. Not a reason for instant panic, but we now watch whether these markets can stay in rally mode or fall into declining mode, as the Nikkei has done already. The FTSE100 is very close to electing decline mode, and also the S&P 500 is sitting only 1% above its daily key reversal level.

* Last week we said clouds are starting to gather above stock markets, and that has continued last week. This is how a fully bullish picture weakens gradually, and that’s why it is useful to keep an eye on several major stock markets.

* The picture for bonds (TLT) is improving. The daily momentum turned up last Wednesday and now the weekly momentum has turned up as well. Bonds are close to going into rally mode, which would mean we can set sights on rising to the weekly key level at 114.34.

* Gold has fallen below its daily key last week and is now in decline mode again. The good news is that we didn’t see much follow through to the downside, and more importantly, the daily momentum for gold turned back up on Friday. A daily close above $1314.60 will put gold back in rally mode, and would be a signal to buy.

* The Euro/US$ is back to a fully bullish picture. But it’s daily momentum is starting to flatten out and may turn down next week.

* Crude oil continues to look for direction. It fell below its daily key level on Thursday, only to climb right back into rally mode on Friday. There seems to be strong buying at the $103 level, but at this point it is tough to say where it will go next. The daily momentum for oil remains down at the moment, so unless we see good follow through next week this may prove to be another dead cat bounce.

Good luck,

Danny

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of July 22, 2013

Posted by Danny on July 20, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

Status Key (W) Mom (W) Mode Key (D) Mom (D)
Nasdaq BULL S: 3294 Up RALLY S: 3502 Down *
S&P 500 BULL S: 1563 Up RALLY S: 1647.50 Up
Nikkei BULL S: 12450 Up RALLY S: 13885 Down *
FTSE 100 BULL S: 6249 Up RALLY S: 6420 Up
DAX BULL S: 7819 Up * RALLY S: 8087 Up
Bonds (TLT) BEAR R: 116.40 Down DECLINE R: 110.44 Up
Gold (spot) BEAR R: 1448 Up * DECLINE R: 1295.55 Up
Euro/US$ BEAR R: 1.3186 Up * RALLY * R: 1.3035 Up
Crude Oil(CL) BULL S: 93.47 Up RALLY S: 101.88 Up

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)

Important developments:

* The weekly momentum for Dax is now Up, as was already the case for the other covered stock markets.

* For most stock markets the daily momentum is now stalling and for the Nasdaq and Nikkei it has turned Down already. This is the first sign of a potential peak. When that happens it is not a reason for instant panic, but it is a sign to get more careful and protect your profits with a well chosen stop-loss. When daily momentum turns down after a significant rally, then I start putting my stop-loss a few ticks below the previous day’s low. This often keeps me in the rally if there is more to come (which then turns the daily momentum back up after a few days), and if weakness continues then I get stopped out for a nice profit. E.g. Friday’s low for the Nasdaq was 3578.57, so for Monday I put my stop at ~3578.50. The Nasdaq has been in rally mode since it closed above 3435 in early July, so this locks in some 130 points profit in just two weeks, with potentially more to come if the daily momentum turns back up before the stop-loss gets hit.

* Gold has continued to fail at its daily key reversal, so remains in declining mode. But its weekly momentum is now turning up, be it tentatively. This is a first sign that it could go on to test its weekly key resistance (currently at $1448), but to do so it will need to take the next hurdle by closing above that daily key. Gold has now been stuck just below its daily key resistance for 7 trading days in a row, so it will be interesting to see which way it goes. I think we will find out next week.

* The Euro has shifted into rally mode last week, and also its weekly momentum is now turning up. Positive developments, but we need to get follow through. The Euro is in a rather narrow sideways range, and that’s why the weekly and daily key reversal levels are so close to each other. In that case the momentum can turn several times before a clear trending move emerges.

* Oil has continued to push higher, but its daily momentum is now starting to stall and may turn down next week. I keep a stop-loss near $105 and will move my stop closer to the market if the daily momentum turns down.

PS: I try to send out timely tweets when major markets are at important junctures, so follow @lunatictrader1 if you want to be kept up to date.

Good luck,
Danny

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Nikkei panic

Posted by Danny on June 13, 2013

Got some questions on the Nikkei crash, so I will give my technical charts and my updated key levels, including those for Nikkei and for long term treasury bonds (TLT).

The Nikkei crash started a few weeks ago, and now seems to be spilling over in other markets.
The Japanese market is down over 20% from its recent peak, but based on my Earl indicators I wouldn’t be in a hurry to start buying.
Here is the weekly chart (click for larger image):

Nikkei weekly

The Earl indicator has been showing a major bearish divergence for months, and once the Earl2 peaked out there was no way back for this market. A quick rebound to 14000 remains possible, but I wouldn’t rush in until the Earl2 is back into bottom territory, which is at least a few months away.

A look at the daily chart for possible support levels (click for larger image):

Nikkei

Also here we had a clear bearish divergence since early April. The Earl has turned up from oversold level for a quick rebound rally. But the Earl2 is not showing any sign of a bottom yet, so it is too early to buy.
Major support levels to watch: 11800 and then 10400.

I expect a short term bottom near 12000, then a rebound rally to just below 14000. Then a 2nd decline into autumn.

***

Here are my current key reversal levels:

Status Key (W) Mode Key (D)
Nasdaq BULL S: 3221 DECLINE * R: 3456
S&P 500 BULL S: 1534 DECLINE R: 1644
Nikkei BULL S: 11860 DECLINE R: 13992
Bonds (TLT) BEAR R: 120.24 DECLINE R: 116.80
Gold (spot) BEAR R: 1555 DECLINE R: 1414
Euro/US$ BULL * S: 1.2921 RALLY S: 1.3024
Crude Oil(CL) BULL S: 90.95 RALLY S: 93.32

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, * = change from previous week/day)

 

The Nasdaq dropped below its daily key reversal level yesterday, and is now in DECLINE mode again.

The Nikkei is still in BULL status, and will remain so if it closes the week above 11860.

 

Good luck, Danny

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

 
%d bloggers like this: