LunaticTrader

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Posts Tagged ‘oil’

Has oil bottomed?

Posted by Danny on September 21, 2015

The new lunar red period has started with fresh selling pressure in stocks and the weekly reversal levels stay in bearish trend for most markets. It looks like our LT wave for September is panning out quite well, but there is still more than a week to go so we can’t take anything for granted. Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart (click image to enlarge it):

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq has rebounded well from the August lows, but this was the easy part. The far more difficult hurdle on the way back up is the 4950-5150 zone, the area where many investors have bought in the last 6 months. Some investors are probably waiting for break even to do their selling, and all that selling will have to be absorbed before the market can go higher. I think we are getting to the point where that delayed selling is starting to show up.
Technically the slower Earl2 indicator (orange line) keeps going up from a major low, but the faster Earl (blue line) has turned down from a high level. This suggests we will first see some consolidation. A retest of the August lows is not impossible, but it is more likely that 4600 will offer major support if the Nasdaq heads down again.
The market has gone up nicely in the recent lunar green period, but the real test of underlying strength in the market will come now, in the red period. If the market holds up well, or even marks gains, then things will look pretty good heading into Q4. If the market drops sharply in the next few weeks, then we are probably in for several more months of pain. There is still plenty of reason to stay cautious as it is too early to declare the correction over.

As chart of the week I want to take a look at crude oil. This is a weekly chart for a longer term perspective (click image to enlarge it):

oil icebergs

“Lava” marked a major top in August 2013. The subsequent massive drop has painted a period of “floating ice” and “open water”, and we now see the first signs of life with icy mountain appearing and going higher. This can still turn into an iceberg, which would be a bearish sign. But if some green grass appears it would be the first indication of longer term bullish energy in more than a year. A breakout above $55 would terminate the long term down trend channel, and then oil can rise to $60 and higher. I am looking for $75 to be reached in the most bullish scenario.
Note: more info about reading icebergs charts can be found in this article.

Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of August 4, 2014

Posted by Danny on August 3, 2014

Our key tables and comments for this week, now in slideshow format. Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode. Click on “Slideshare” (bottom left) if you want to save and print it.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then you can also click here.

Good luck, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of June 16, 2014

Posted by Danny on June 15, 2014

Comments for this week :

* Stock markets are hesitating after the recent series of new highs. On the weekly level the bull markets are  intact, but in the daily key reversal levels we now see all major indexes with downward MoM, and the FTSE100 has fallen into bearish mode. This can be considered a first warning sign.

* The S&P 500 reached our Top1 target at 1950, as we tweeted live, and failed to break above it. It’s hard to tell whether this will be just a short term peak, or a level that we won’t see back for while. Either way, we now have an interesting new Top2 target for the S&P 500 at 2031

* In other world markets the Chinese markets is grabbing upward MoM and coming very close to going into bullish mode. Most markets remain well above their weekly key reversal level.

* Bonds (TLT) are trying to get into rally mode again. TLT needs a daily close above 112.54 to do so.

* Gold has strengthened further. A weekly close above $1311.12 would turn gold fully bullish, and would probably give us a good trending move. Keeping an eye on it.

* The Euro is still weak, but is not giving up too much territory. MoM is to the downside, but as long as the Euro hovers near 1.35 it wouldn’t take much to turn things around.

* Oil has finally cracked above its Top1 target at $104, so now the path is open for a climb towards 109-110, where our next price targets are.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 26 stocks are bullish this week, down from 28 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,310.65 4,028.87 2.28 75 39.54
S&P 500 1,936.16 1,827.71 5.53 80 36.70
Nikkei 15,097.84 14,386.16 0.04 1 -0.70
FTSE 100 6,777.90 6,704.26 2.85 6 -0.65
DAX 9,912.87 9,305.46 4.33 11 3.02
Bonds (TLT) 112.15 108.72 4.46 20 5.12
Gold (spot) 1,276.85 1,311.12 -1.96 2 2.21
$EURUSD 1.3540 1.3773 -1.69 4 -1.09
Oil (CL) 106.91 99.76 1.79 17 6.78

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

6/13/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,310.65 4,227.45 6.28 16 4.22 2
S&P 500 1,936.16 1,918.69 5.63 16 2.54 2
Nikkei 15,097.84 14,747.45 6.30 16 4.77 2
FTSE 100 6,777.90 6,843.54 0.28 0 0.00 35
DAX 9,912.87 9,852.69 2.63 37 3.24 2
Bonds (TLT) 112.15 112.54 -3.35 8 0.35 8
Gold (spot) 1,276.85 1,257.63 -0.48 1 0.31 9
$EURUSD 1.3540 1.3662 -3.63 25 -1.51 11
Oil (CL) 106.91 102.50 5.00 22 4.91 1

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742
S&P 500 1950 2031 * 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7110 6230 5980
DAX 10240 10450 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 114.60 115.70 108.25 * 102
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1160 * 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3366 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 109.24 109.97 * 94.60 91.85

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of March 31, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 29, 2014

Comments for this week (the key reversal tables are below) :

* The Nasdaq has continued its recent weakness and went into declining mode when it closed below its daily key reversal level last Monday. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones have been stronger and have not dropped below any key levels yet.

* The German DAX index has climbed back above its weekly key reversal level, so is now bullish again. But the move is suspect as weekly MoM remains to the downside, suggesting a possible false break out. We have to see whether this market shows proper follow through.

* As mentioned last week, the $EURUSD is a market to watch. We now see weekly MoM turn down for the euro, which adds to evidence that the next move for the euro will be down. See also the long term monthly euro chart I posted on twitter yesterday.

* Gold has continued to drop and now the weekly MoM is going down. Is likely to produce some dead cat bounce soon, but medium term it doesn’t look very good for gold right now and if the Euro weakens further it will also weigh on gold prices.

* Bonds continue to show strength and are now fully bullish on weekly and daily level. Probably set to test their long standing Top1 target at 111.80.

* Oil has turned bullish on the daily level,  but its weekly MoM remains to the downside. This makes it questionable whether oil can build on its recent gains. Keep a stop loss near the daily key reversal level if you are long crude oil.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets can be picked up here.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 22 stocks are bullish this week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,155.76 3,969.98 5.74 64 34.53
S&P 500 1,857.62 1,785.01 3.92 69 31.16
Nikkei 14,696.03 15,140.33 -2.68 2 3.10
FTSE 100 6,615.60 6,719.90 -0.33 2 1.34
DAX 9,587.19 9,088.71 0.56 0 0.00
Bonds (TLT) 109.37 105.13 3.63 9 2.51
Gold (spot) 1,294.90 1,282.81 3.59 6 -1.76
$EURUSD 1.3750 1.3612 2.49 35 3.52
Oil (CL) 101.67 97.37 2.23 6 1.55

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

28/03/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,155.76 4,287.34 -5.01 4 -2.28 7
S&P 500 1,857.62 1,845.24 -0.29 32 2.06 2
Nikkei 14,696.03 14,793.72 -2.77 9 3.10 12
FTSE 100 6,615.60 6,675.16 -2.52 14 -1.10 12
DAX 9,587.19 9,297.12 2.03 2 1.68 5
Bonds (TLT) 109.37 107.64 5.46 12 2.50 1
Gold (spot) 1,294.90 1,334.13 -5.36 4 -1.04 7
$EURUSD 1.3750 1.3841 -2.08 6 -0.20 7
Oil (CL) 101.67 99.31 0.57 1 0.33 5

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 91.85 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of January 13, 2014

Posted by Danny on January 11, 2014

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,174.67 3,834.56 8.16 53 35.14
S&P 500 1,842.37 1,752.02 7.43 58 30.08
Nikkei 15,912.06 14,684.32 7.98 59 68.10
FTSE 100 6,739.90 6,541.16 1.25 2 -0.16
DAX 9,473.24 8,936.79 6.78 26 15.00
Bonds (TLT) 104.41 106.56 -2.83 34 -9.88
Gold (spot) 1,247.76 1,319.85 -4.37 55 -24.69
$EURUSD 1.3666 1.3448 2.53 24 2.89
Oil (CL) 92.72 100.73 -2.15 11 -5.27

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Momentum (MoM) has turned down for US and Japanese stock indexes. To give you an idea, on average MoM changes direction every 6 bars, so 6 weeks for the weekly reversals. But it varies between 1 week and over 20 weeks.  So, with MoM now turning down for many stock indexes, an average 6 weeks of weakness (down or sideways) can be expected.

* For bonds (TLT) the weekly MoM is turning up. TLT is not far from its bullish reversal level at 106.56

*Oil has downward MoM again, continuing its bearish tendency.

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,174.67 4,091.01 4.40 62 10.81
S&P 500 1,842.37 1,812.85 4.29 15 1.84
Nikkei 15,912.06 15,538.51 4.21 13 0.65
FTSE 100 6,739.90 6,624.01 5.66 12 2.02
DAX 9,473.24 9,279.52 5.21 14 3.61
Bonds (TLT) 104.41 102.40 0.83 1 0.62
Gold (spot) 1,247.76 1,218.97 2.20 0 0.00
$EURUSD 1.3666 1.3696 -2.65 5 0.54
Oil (CL) 92.72 96.49 -8.48 6 -2.88

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* Stock markets stay above their daily bearish reversal levels, but MoM is still to the downside, so it is better to remain cautious at this point.

* Bonds (TLT) have broken above their bullish reversal level last Thursday. Next target to watch is the weekly bullish reversal level (see above).

* Gold has broken above its daily key reversal level as well. A positive development, but it is only a bear market rally unless it gets above the weekly key reversal level.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 4390 3530 3210
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1576
Nikkei 17220 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 6110
DAX 9480 9800 8715 7870
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1153 1075
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 105 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* No new targets this week

* Stock indexes are still close to their Top1 targets. They may have marked the top for a while.

* Crude oil is coming close to its Bottom1 target at 89.50.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of December 16, 2013

Posted by Danny on December 16, 2013

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,000.98 3,758.37 8.29 49 29.52
S&P 500 1,775.31 1,718.10 7.75 54 25.35
Nikkei 15,403.11 14,070.27 5.58 55 62.72
FTSE 100 6,440.00 6,629.66 1.38 0 0.00
DAX 9,006.46 8,774.91 7.47 22 9.33
Bonds (TLT) 103.21 107.46 -2.09 30 -10.92
Gold (spot) 1,236.34 1,356.16 -4.09 51 -25.38
$EURUSD 1.3741 1.3372 2.74 20 3.46
Oil (CL) 96.60 101.33 -4.66 7 -1.31

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* The picture continues to weaken for stocks. The FTSE 100 has fallen below its weekly key reversal level and for the Nasdaq we see weekly MoM turn down.

* No significant changes for bonds, gold, oil and EURUSD.

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,000.98 3,981.06 2.17 44 6.20
S&P 500 1,775.31 1,790.47 -1.06 1 -0.15
Nikkei 15,403.11 15,171.13 1.02 23 6.02
FTSE 100 6,440.00 6,613.38 -6.77 13 -2.96
DAX 9,006.46 9,159.87 -5.02 2 -0.29
Bonds (TLT) 103.21 104.05 -2.20 27 -1.65
Gold (spot) 1,236.34 1,268.39 -1.15 28 -5.74
$EURUSD 1.3741 1.3581 6.24 15 1.43
Oil (CL) 96.60 95.53 5.05 7 -0.75

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* The S&P 500 and the DAX have joined the FTSE 100 by going into declining mode (red). The Nasdaq and the Nikkei are coming close to doing so as well. It’s too early to buy as daily MoM remains down for all covered stock indexes.

* Bonds (TLT) have seen daily MoM turn back upwards, so have survived another test of the 102 bottom level, at least for now.

* Gold continues to build a base just above 1200. MoM is to the upside, so if gold can close above its daily key reversal at 1268.39 then a further rally becomes likely.

* For oil we see daily MoM turn down, probably just a consolidation after its recent gains.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1820 1870 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 17220 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6205 6110
DAX 9480 9800 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1153
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 105 * 113 * 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* A new Top1 target for Crude Oil at 105, with a refined Top2 target at 113.

* Bonds (TLT) continues to sit just above its Bottom1 target at 102. That level may not hold much longer and I would start looking for the Bottom2 target at 96.50

* EURUSD is closing in on its Top1 target

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

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