Key reversal levels for this week:
Weekly |
Current |
Mode |
Key (W) |
MoM (W) |
Weeks |
% Ch. |
Nasdaq |
4,174.67 |
|
3,834.56 |
8.16 |
53 |
35.14 |
S&P 500 |
1,842.37 |
|
1,752.02 |
7.43 |
58 |
30.08 |
Nikkei |
15,912.06 |
|
14,684.32 |
7.98 |
59 |
68.10 |
FTSE 100 |
6,739.90 |
|
6,541.16 |
1.25 |
2 |
-0.16 |
DAX |
9,473.24 |
|
8,936.79 |
6.78 |
26 |
15.00 |
Bonds (TLT) |
104.41 |
|
106.56 |
-2.83 |
34 |
-9.88 |
Gold (spot) |
1,247.76 |
|
1,319.85 |
-4.37 |
55 |
-24.69 |
$EURUSD |
1.3666 |
|
1.3448 |
2.53 |
24 |
2.89 |
Oil (CL) |
92.72 |
|
100.73 |
-2.15 |
11 |
-5.27 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:
* Momentum (MoM) has turned down for US and Japanese stock indexes. To give you an idea, on average MoM changes direction every 6 bars, so 6 weeks for the weekly reversals. But it varies between 1 week and over 20 weeks. So, with MoM now turning down for many stock indexes, an average 6 weeks of weakness (down or sideways) can be expected.
* For bonds (TLT) the weekly MoM is turning up. TLT is not far from its bullish reversal level at 106.56
*Oil has downward MoM again, continuing its bearish tendency.
Daily key reversal levels as of today:
Daily |
Current |
Mode |
Key (D) |
MoM (D) |
Days |
% Ch. |
Nasdaq |
4,174.67 |
|
4,091.01 |
4.40 |
62 |
10.81 |
S&P 500 |
1,842.37 |
|
1,812.85 |
4.29 |
15 |
1.84 |
Nikkei |
15,912.06 |
|
15,538.51 |
4.21 |
13 |
0.65 |
FTSE 100 |
6,739.90 |
|
6,624.01 |
5.66 |
12 |
2.02 |
DAX |
9,473.24 |
|
9,279.52 |
5.21 |
14 |
3.61 |
Bonds (TLT) |
104.41 |
|
102.40 |
0.83 |
1 |
0.62 |
Gold (spot) |
1,247.76 |
|
1,218.97 |
2.20 |
0 |
0.00 |
$EURUSD |
1.3666 |
|
1.3696 |
-2.65 |
5 |
0.54 |
Oil (CL) |
92.72 |
|
96.49 |
-8.48 |
6 |
-2.88 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:
* Stock markets stay above their daily bearish reversal levels, but MoM is still to the downside, so it is better to remain cautious at this point.
* Bonds (TLT) have broken above their bullish reversal level last Thursday. Next target to watch is the weekly bullish reversal level (see above).
* Gold has broken above its daily key reversal level as well. A positive development, but it is only a bear market rally unless it gets above the weekly key reversal level.
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
Key Targets |
Top1 |
Top2 |
Bottom1 |
Bottom2 |
Nasdaq |
4200 |
4390 |
3530 |
3210 |
S&P 500 |
1870 |
1926 |
1755 |
1576 |
Nikkei |
17220 |
|
12710 |
10450 |
FTSE 100 |
6800 |
7150 |
6230 |
6110 |
DAX |
9480 |
9800 |
8715 |
7870 |
Bonds (TLT) |
111.80 |
128.50 |
102 |
96.25 |
Gold (spot) |
1448 |
1540 |
1153 |
1075 |
EURUSD |
1.3950 |
1.42 |
1.2870 |
1.2350 |
Crude Oil(CL) |
105 |
113 |
89.50 |
86.00 |
(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* No new targets this week
* Stock indexes are still close to their Top1 targets. They may have marked the top for a while.
* Crude oil is coming close to its Bottom1 target at 89.50.
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.
Good luck,
Danny
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Has oil bottomed?
Posted by Dan on September 21, 2015
The new lunar red period has started with fresh selling pressure in stocks and the weekly reversal levels stay in bearish trend for most markets. It looks like our LT wave for September is panning out quite well, but there is still more than a week to go so we can’t take anything for granted. Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart (click image to enlarge it):
The Nasdaq has rebounded well from the August lows, but this was the easy part. The far more difficult hurdle on the way back up is the 4950-5150 zone, the area where many investors have bought in the last 6 months. Some investors are probably waiting for break even to do their selling, and all that selling will have to be absorbed before the market can go higher. I think we are getting to the point where that delayed selling is starting to show up.
Technically the slower Earl2 indicator (orange line) keeps going up from a major low, but the faster Earl (blue line) has turned down from a high level. This suggests we will first see some consolidation. A retest of the August lows is not impossible, but it is more likely that 4600 will offer major support if the Nasdaq heads down again.
The market has gone up nicely in the recent lunar green period, but the real test of underlying strength in the market will come now, in the red period. If the market holds up well, or even marks gains, then things will look pretty good heading into Q4. If the market drops sharply in the next few weeks, then we are probably in for several more months of pain. There is still plenty of reason to stay cautious as it is too early to declare the correction over.
As chart of the week I want to take a look at crude oil. This is a weekly chart for a longer term perspective (click image to enlarge it):
“Lava” marked a major top in August 2013. The subsequent massive drop has painted a period of “floating ice” and “open water”, and we now see the first signs of life with icy mountain appearing and going higher. This can still turn into an iceberg, which would be a bearish sign. But if some green grass appears it would be the first indication of longer term bullish energy in more than a year. A breakout above $55 would terminate the long term down trend channel, and then oil can rise to $60 and higher. I am looking for $75 to be reached in the most bullish scenario.
Note: more info about reading icebergs charts can be found in this article.
Danny
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Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: lunar cycles, oil | 2 Comments »