Investing with the Moon

Posts Tagged ‘performance’

Ridiculous performance

Posted by Danny on October 19, 2015

Markets went higher last week and ended the lunar green period with a nice 267 point gain for Nasdaq. So far this year the lunar cycle has been ridiculously accurate in calling the swings in the market.


There are still a few more months to go and a lot can happen, but this could easily become the best year for lunar cycle trading since 1950. The previous top years were 1998 and 1956, when the green periods outperformed the red periods by 34% (for S&P 500). I am saying this to warn readers that this streak WILL end and the lunar cycle will go back to more “normal” performance sooner or later. And there will also be bad years. E.g. the worst year since 1950 was 1987, when the market lost 19% in green periods and gained 16% in red periods. And almost equally bad was 1990, when the S&P 500 lost 18% in green periods and gained 25% in red periods. This gives you some idea what to expect when a really bad year comes around.
I am getting more questions about the lunar cycles than ever, and new followers on Twitter every day. That’s all very nice, but this suggests that too many people are starting to keep an eye on the moon because it has been doing well all year. Don’t become too confident in the lunar green and red periods. Historically they “work” 60% of the time, not 90% of the time.

On to our weekly look at the Nasdaq (click image to enlarge it):


The Nasdaq is coming into overhead resistance in the 4900-5000 zone. The Earl indicator (blue line) has turned down, while the slower Earl2 (orange line) and MoM indicator are still headed higher. This suggests there could be a bit of upside left, but we could as easily have some short term top at hand and head into a phase of consolidation. I think 4700-4950 is going to be the range for a while. A drop below 4700 would not look good and a painless climb to 5000+ would probably be most surprising for investors.


Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 5 Comments »

The lunar cycle is working too well

Posted by Danny on May 11, 2015

The Nasdaq recorded a 68 point loss in the recent lunar red period. This keeps up the perfect record for the lunar cycle in 2015 so far:

lunar cycle

In fact, since April last year there has been only one green period in which the Nasdaq went down, an 80 point loss in September 2014. In the last 13 green periods the market went up 12 times. Looking at the red periods since April last year, the market went up only 5 times out of 14 periods. We have been keeping track of all green and red periods since we started this blog in 2009, and you can always look up the results on our lunar cycle tracking page.

Whenever the lunar cycle has this kind of winning streak I start getting more emails, and more people start talking about it on forums, and many start using this cycle because they think they have found some kind of holy grail. That’s all very nice, but especially for newer readers I want to repeat: this is NOT the time to start using lunar cycles if you have never used them before. There is no reason to believe that this system will keep performing as it has done in the last 12 months, because historically the lunar cycle has worked only 60% of the time, not 90% or 100% of the time.
The best time to start using a new method is always when it has just had a mediocre or bad period. Just like it is generally not a good idea to chase the market, it is better not to chase methods either.

Stocks had a strange week, coming under pressure early on and ending the week with a strong surge. Here is the current S&P 500 chart (click image to enlarge it):

S&P 500

The market has gone sideways since February. The range continues to narrow. As I said last week, a breakout is imminent. But which way? Friday’s surge doesn’t really solve the puzzle. And my indicators have all converged towards the neutral line, not giving clear direction either way.
We are in a new lunar green period, which normally favors a move to the upside. But maybe it is time for the lunar cycle to miss a beat? This is the kind of situation where I prefer to wait until the market shows its hand.

Be well,

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