Posts Tagged ‘TLT’

Key reversal levels for week of June 30, 2014

Posted by Danny on June 29, 2014

Comments for this week :

* We have updated our page explaining the key reversal levels with a lot of new info and details for the different strategy numbers as found in the last column of the daily key tables. This should make it easier to understand and follow this approach. I hope to add more detail in the future, the page remains a work in progress.

* For those who wonder what’s the point of these tables. Well, among other things it offers an objective take on the market. And that can be very useful, for example when market sentiment differs noticeably from what the key reversal levels tell us. For example, in an early February blog post I observed how the media had become very negative about emerging markets, yet my weekly key reversal levels were starting to give buy signals for countries like Indonesia. A few weeks later there was a buy signal for India. If you bought on the next Monday you now sit on profits of 8 and 19% respectively. The system doesn’t always win, but the losses are usually small versus the profits. That’s always the main feature of a good trend following system. The small losses you take are the entrance fee you pay to get in on the big trending moves.

* Back to the key tables for this week. Weekly MoM is turning down for the DAX, so we have more markets that go into hesitating mode. Daily MoM has turned down for most stock indexes, but it is now turning back up for the Nasdaq. On outlier? Or will the other indexes follow the Nasdaq to the upside? We will find out soon.

* In other world markets weekly MoM is turning down for Brazil, France, India and Italy. That’s a warning sign, especially for India where MoM has reached a very high +9 reading.

* Bonds (TLT) are still looking for direction.

* Gold is taking a pause after its recent jump. It is holding up well so far, but will need another push higher to confirm that a new up trend is in place. Daily MoM has turned down for gold, so it could see a retest of the $1290 breakout level before possibly heading higher.

* The Euro is going into daily bullish mode. I have been warning that Euro could surprise to the upside. If it gets back above 1.38 then a short covering rally could quickly take it higher and turn the Euro fully bullish. It is that scenario that is probably pressuring European stocks for the moment.

* Oil is also pausing, but still bullish according to the key levels.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 25 stocks are bullish this week, down from 26 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly	Current	Key (W)	MoM (W)	Weeks	% Ch.
Nasdaq	4,397.93	4,065.66	4.83	77	42.37
S&P 500	1,960.96	1,843.56	6.79	82	38.45
Nikkei	15,095.00	14,494.82	1.94	3	-0.72
FTSE 100	6,757.80	6,707.99	2.16	8	-0.95
DAX	9,815.17	9,366.08	4.81	13	2.01
Bonds (TLT)	113.24	109.05	3.41	22	6.14
Gold (spot)	1,316.02	1,273.23	-1.08	1	0.08
$EURUSD	1.3647	1.3743	-2.27	6	-0.31
Oil (CL)	105.74	100.76	2.91	19	5.61

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

6/27/2014	Current	Key (D)	MoM (D)	Days	% Ch.	Str. #
Nasdaq	4,397.93	4,282.82	4.81	26	6.33	17
S&P 500	1,960.96	1,933.31	4.18	26	3.85	2
Nikkei	15,095.00	14,959.50	5.06	26	4.75	2
FTSE 100	6,757.80	6,813.64	-2.98	10	-0.30	7
DAX	9,815.17	9,943.03	-1.75	2	-0.80	7
Bonds (TLT)	113.24	111.89	2.23	3	0.12	5
Gold (spot)	1,316.02	1,279.74	7.44	11	3.39	2
$EURUSD	1.3647	1.3586	1.13	0	0.00	37
Oil (CL)	105.74	104.31	2.72	32	3.76	2

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets	Top1	Top2	Bottom1	Bottom2
Nasdaq	4390	4531	3975	3742
S&P 500	1950	2001 *	1755	1641
Nikkei	15976 *	17220	13860	12940
FTSE 100	6800	7110	6677	6230
DAX	10240	10450	8715	8510
Bonds (TLT)	114.60	115.70	108.25	102
Gold (spot)	1424	1541	1160	1075
$EURUSD	1.3950	1.42	1.3403	1.2870
Crude Oil(CL)	109.24	112.47 *	94.60	91.85

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: Brazil, France, FTSE 100 Index, gold, India, key levels, Nasdaq, TLT | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of June 16, 2014

Posted by Danny on June 15, 2014

Comments for this week :

* Stock markets are hesitating after the recent series of new highs. On the weekly level the bull markets are intact, but in the daily key reversal levels we now see all major indexes with downward MoM, and the FTSE100 has fallen into bearish mode. This can be considered a first warning sign.

* The S&P 500 reached our Top1 target at 1950, as we tweeted live, and failed to break above it. It’s hard to tell whether this will be just a short term peak, or a level that we won’t see back for while. Either way, we now have an interesting new Top2 target for the S&P 500 at 2031

* In other world markets the Chinese markets is grabbing upward MoM and coming very close to going into bullish mode. Most markets remain well above their weekly key reversal level.

* Bonds (TLT) are trying to get into rally mode again. TLT needs a daily close above 112.54 to do so.

* Gold has strengthened further. A weekly close above $1311.12 would turn gold fully bullish, and would probably give us a good trending move. Keeping an eye on it.

* The Euro is still weak, but is not giving up too much territory. MoM is to the downside, but as long as the Euro hovers near 1.35 it wouldn’t take much to turn things around.

* Oil has finally cracked above its Top1 target at $104, so now the path is open for a climb towards 109-110, where our next price targets are.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 26 stocks are bullish this week, down from 28 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly	Current	Key (W)	MoM (W)	Weeks	% Ch.
Nasdaq	4,310.65	4,028.87	2.28	75	39.54
S&P 500	1,936.16	1,827.71	5.53	80	36.70
Nikkei	15,097.84	14,386.16	0.04	1	-0.70
FTSE 100	6,777.90	6,704.26	2.85	6	-0.65
DAX	9,912.87	9,305.46	4.33	11	3.02
Bonds (TLT)	112.15	108.72	4.46	20	5.12
Gold (spot)	1,276.85	1,311.12	-1.96	2	2.21
$EURUSD	1.3540	1.3773	-1.69	4	-1.09
Oil (CL)	106.91	99.76	1.79	17	6.78

Latest daily key reversal levels:

6/13/2014	Current	Key (D)	MoM (D)	Days	% Ch.	Str. #
Nasdaq	4,310.65	4,227.45	6.28	16	4.22	2
S&P 500	1,936.16	1,918.69	5.63	16	2.54	2
Nikkei	15,097.84	14,747.45	6.30	16	4.77	2
FTSE 100	6,777.90	6,843.54	0.28	0	0.00	35
DAX	9,912.87	9,852.69	2.63	37	3.24	2
Bonds (TLT)	112.15	112.54	-3.35	8	0.35	8
Gold (spot)	1,276.85	1,257.63	-0.48	1	0.31	9
$EURUSD	1.3540	1.3662	-3.63	25	-1.51	11
Oil (CL)	106.91	102.50	5.00	22	4.91	1

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets	Top1	Top2	Bottom1	Bottom2
Nasdaq	4390	4531	3975	3742
S&P 500	1950	2031 *	1755	1641
Nikkei	15650	17220	13860	12940
FTSE 100	6800	7110	6230	5980
DAX	10240	10450	8715	8510
Bonds (TLT)	114.60	115.70	108.25 *	102
Gold (spot)	1424	1541	1160 *	1075
$EURUSD	1.3950	1.42	1.3366	1.2870
Crude Oil(CL)	109.24	109.97 *	94.60	91.85

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

Key reversal levels for week of June 9, 2014

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: Euro, FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, oil, TLT | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of June 2, 2014

Posted by Danny on June 1, 2014

Comments for this week :

* After a strong week in the stock markets we remain with a fully bullish picture and upward weekly MoM for most major indexes. A pullback will start eventually, and stagnating MoM in the daily keys will normally offer us the first clues when the current rally is nearing an end. Right now it says: all clear.

* Just repeating what I said last week: it is always hard to tell how far a move will carry… best is to go with the flow and respond when the situation changes again. Today’s daily key reversal table shows what happens when we go with the flow: all signals profitable (blue), 1-4% profits within days or weeks. There is no need to predict the top, the system will automatically tell us that some kind of top is in when a given market closes below its key reversal level. Why is following trends so hard to do when it appears so simple? A: Our ego wants to forecast, not follow. Ego wants to buck the trend.

* In other world markets there are no major changes this week. I notice that MoM is turning up for the Russell 2000 index. That doesn’t mean the pain is over for the small caps, but it increases the odds that we will get a rebound rally or a sideways period. A weekly close above 1147.64 would put Russell 2000 in the bullish camp again..

* Bonds (TLT) continue to hesitate near their Top1 target at 114.60.

* Gold tried hard, but has finally succumbed and closed below its weekly key level after 14 weeks of trying the upside. We have been telling for months that gold would go the way of the Euro. Both are in weekly bearish mode now. Will it be a short venture, or the start of a lengthy bear move? I don’t know.

* The Euro appears to be fighting back at the 1.36 level and has its daily MoM turn up from rather low -5 level. That offers some short term hope for both the Euro and for gold. But we have to see if they can claw their ways back above their respective daily key levels.

* Oil price is sputtering as well. It was once again rejected at its long standing Top1 target at 104.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 26 stocks are bullish this week, up from 25 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks. Note: this most simple indicator has been saying “healthy bull market” since the middle of April, when the number of bullish stocks climbed above 20 again. Goes to show that investing doesn’t have to complicated.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly	Current	Key (W)	MoM (W)	Weeks	% Ch.
Nasdaq	4,242.62	4,000.92	-0.33	73	37.34
S&P 500	1,923.57	1,813.69	3.84	78	35.81
Nikkei	14,632.38	14,841.67	-1.72	11	2.65
FTSE 100	6,844.50	6,677.06	2.58	4	0.32
DAX	9,943.27	9,237.00	2.67	9	3.34
Bonds (TLT)	114.10	108.30	5.42	18	6.95
Gold (spot)	1,249.42	1,319.66	-1.09	0	0.00
$EURUSD	1.3630	1.3807	-0.43	2	-0.43
Oil (CL)	102.71	99.21	1.15	15	2.59

Latest daily key reversal levels:

5/30/2014	Current	Key (D)	MoM (D)	Days	% Ch.	Str. #
Nasdaq	4,242.62	4,138.35	5.31	6	2.58	1
S&P 500	1,923.57	1,886.58	4.66	6	1.87	1
Nikkei	14,632.38	14,342.57	5.37	6	1.54	13
FTSE 100	6,844.50	6,781.74	1.42	26	2.43	1
DAX	9,943.27	9,705.24	6.17	27	3.55	1
Bonds (TLT)	114.10	112.11	4.37	37	4.90	1
Gold (spot)	1,249.42	1,289.47	-3.93	3	-1.20	11
$EURUSD	1.3630	1.3717	-5.25	15	-0.85	28
Oil (CL)	102.71	101.63	4.23	12	0.79	2

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets	Top1	Top2	Bottom1	Bottom2
Nasdaq	4390	4531	3975	3742
S&P 500	1950		1755	1641
Nikkei	15650	17220	13860	12940
FTSE 100	6800	7110	6230	5980
DAX	10240		8715	8510
Bonds (TLT)	114.60	115.70	102	96.25
Gold (spot)	1424	1541	1185	1075
$EURUSD	1.3950	1.42	1.3366 *	1.2870
Crude Oil(CL)	104	109.24 *	94.60	91.85

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: Dow Jones Industrial Average, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, TLT | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of May 26, 2014

Posted by Danny on May 25, 2014

Comments for this week :

* In the weekly key reversal levels for major stock indexes we have momentum (MoM) turning up for the Nasdaq and Nikkei. This means all major markets are trying to push higher again.

* On the daily level markets have turned to bullish mode as well. It is always hard to tell how far a move will carry. Best is to go with the flow and respond when the situation changes again.

* In other world markets the Hong Kong and Russian indexes are turning bullish. This leaves only a few countries with bearish setups.

* Bonds (TLT) are hesitating since they reached their Top1 target at 114.60. Money may start flowing back into stocks and that would weigh on bond prices going forward.

* Gold is not moving at all recently. It remains mildy bullish in our key reversal system, but it wouldn’t take much to turn it fully bearish. A big move is likely so I am watching the key levels carefully on this one.

* The Euro has gone fully bearish. Needs a weekly close above 1.3829 to get in the bullish camp again.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 25 stocks are bullish this week, up from 24 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly	Current	Key (W)	MoM (W)	Weeks	% Ch.
Nasdaq	4,185.81	3,990.47	-1.25	72	35.50
S&P 500	1,900.53	1,807.91	3.23	77	34.19
Nikkei	14,462.17	14,852.38	-2.17	10	1.46
FTSE 100	6,815.80	6,653.81	2.09	3	-0.10
DAX	9,768.01	9,205.97	1.75	8	1.52
Bonds (TLT)	112.70	107.89	5.16	17	5.64
Gold (spot)	1,292.41	1,280.24	-0.60	14	-1.95
$EURUSD	1.3628	1.3829	0.31	1	-0.45
Oil (CL)	104.35	98.86	0.99	14	4.22

Latest daily key reversal levels:

23/05/2014	Current	Key (D)	MoM (D)	Days	% Ch.	Str. #
Nasdaq	4,185.81	4,091.34	1.34	2	1.20	1
S&P 500	1,900.53	1,874.22	0.97	2	0.65	1
Nikkei	14,462.17	14,148.00	-1.26	1	0.35	13
FTSE 100	6,815.80	6,767.96	1.25	22	2.01	2
DAX	9,768.01	9,570.23	2.33	22	1.73	17
Bonds (TLT)	112.70	111.56	2.52	33	3.61	2
Gold (spot)	1,292.41	1,286.13	-0.41	7	-1.01	6
$EURUSD	1.3628	1.3769	-5.37	10	-0.87	27
Oil (CL)	104.35	101.19	5.11	8	2.39	1

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets	Top1	Top2	Bottom1	Bottom2
Nasdaq	4390	4531	3975	3742
S&P 500	1870	1950	1755	1641
Nikkei	15650	17220	13860	12940
FTSE 100	6800	7110 *	6230	5980
DAX	9800	10240	8715	8510
Bonds (TLT)	114.60	115.70	102	96.25
Gold (spot)	1424	1541	1185	1075
$EURUSD	1.3950	1.42	1.3390	1.2870
Crude Oil(CL)	104	109.80	94.60	91.85

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Euro, FTSE 100 Index, Hong Kong, key levels, Nasdaq, TLT | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of May 5, 2014

Posted by Danny on May 4, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* Major stock markets have put in a strong week. The FTSE100 has broken above its weekly key reversal level and is now bullish again. This leaves Nikkei as the only major market that is still bearish on the weekly level. Meanwhile weekly MoM is turning up for S&P 500 and DAX. The overall picture has improved significantly from a few weeks ago. But we need to see follow through in the coming weeks.

* On the daily level momentum (MoM) remains to the upside for all covered indexes, with FTSE100 standing out as the strongest market for the moment. The UK market is once again testing its Top1 target at 6800. Maybe it can break out this time and then we can set sights on the Top2 target at 7250.

* In other world markets we have Mexico turning bullish, while Vietnam is going bearish on the weekly level.

* Bonds(TLT) have found a second breath and are pushing above their Top1 target at 111.80. That means we can start looking for the Top2 target at 114.60. Our system has remained bullish on bonds for 14 weeks and is now proven right again with this push to new highs for the year.

* Gold appeared to breaking down but made a nice comeback on Friday. This has kept it above its weekly key level, and on the daily level MoM is turning up. This is promising, but gold still needs a daily close above $1307.29 to leave the recent correction behind.

* The Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level. We may not see any significant move until the EU elections by the end of May. I will be suprised if the Euro still trades at 1.38 by the end of June.

* Oil remains weak, but as long as it stays above its weekly key level at $98.38 it is only a pause or correction in an ongoing bull market.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, ubchanged from 23 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly	Current	Key (W)	MoM (W)	Weeks	% Ch.
Nasdaq	4,123.90	3,981.47	-1.07	69	33.50
S&P 500	1,881.14	1,797.36	2.71	74	32.82
Nikkei	14,457.51	14,984.42	-2.18	7	1.43
FTSE 100	6,822.40	6,578.32	-0.15	0	0.00
DAX	9,556.02	9,149.23	0.60	5	-0.68
Bonds (TLT)	112.71	106.82	4.74	14	5.64
Gold (spot)	1,299.24	1,280.82	0.46	11	-1.44
$EURUSD	1.3871	1.3685	1.64	40	4.43
Oil (CL)	99.76	98.38	1.73	11	-0.36

Latest daily key reversal levels:

2/05/2014	Current	Key (D)	MoM (D)	Days	% Ch.	Str. #
Nasdaq	4,123.90	4,158.85	-0.04	28	-3.03	8
S&P 500	1,881.14	1,862.82	2.86	11	1.04	1
Nikkei	14,457.51	14,535.23	-0.05	17	0.15	16
FTSE 100	6,822.40	6,660.31	6.04	8	2.10	1
DAX	9,556.02	9,409.27	2.08	7	-0.48	1
Bonds (TLT)	112.71	110.18	3.57	18	3.38	1
Gold (spot)	1,299.24	1,307.29	-1.29	12	-0.25	24
$EURUSD	1.3871	1.3794	1.50	17	0.12	5
Oil (CL)	99.76	101.89	-3.98	5	-0.73	7

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets	Top1	Top2	Bottom1	Bottom2
Nasdaq	4390	4531	3975	3742
S&P 500	1870	1950	1755	1641
Nikkei	15650	17220	13860	12940
FTSE 100	6800	7250	6230	5980
DAX	9800	10240	8715	8510
Bonds (TLT)	111.80	114.60	102	96.25
Gold (spot)	1424	1541	1185	1075
$EURUSD	1.3950	1.42	1.3390	1.2870
Crude Oil(CL)	104	109.80	91.85	86.00

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

Key reversal levels for week of April 28, 2014

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Mexico, Nasdaq, Nikkei, TLT | Leave a Comment »

What’s in store for May

Posted by Danny on May 1, 2014

Every new month is a good opportunity to check out some monthly charts and key reversal levels. It helps to keep a proper long term perspective.

Let’s start with the LT wave chart for May (click for larger image):

The LT wave chart for April did a fairly decent job. The month started strong as expected and was followed by a correction and a rebound in the last week.
For May we have a rather mixed picture. The LT wave peaks in the first days of the month and then a period with up and down swings. This doesn’t mean the month will be flat. I would look for highs and lows based on the blue line. This could be a series of higher highs and lows, or lower highs and lows. Don’t expect perfection. The LT wave gives good indications more than half of the time, but there are also stretches of poor performance, just like with every other system of cycle.

We have also updated our monthly key reversal levels for May 2014. Note: these monthly key reversal are only for long term market orientation. Try to invest mainly in the stronger markets (dark green) and take (partial) profits in markets that go to light green. Speculative buying can be done in the markets that switch from bearish (red) to mildly bearish (pink). A very patient long term investor can do well based on these monthly keys only, but for more optimal entry and exit points the weekly and daily key reversals can be used. We post them here on the blog and through twitter every week/day.

Monthly	Current	Key (M)	MoM (M)	Months	% Ch.
Nasdaq	4,114.56	3,491.54	8.95	53	90.29
S&P 500	1,883.95	1,592.25	8.29	27	43.54
Nikkei	14,304.11	12,910.63	6.37	16	34.89
FTSE 100	6,780.00	6,249.30	2.67	17	15.57
DAX	9,603.23	8,092.59	7.49	26	40.56
Bonds (TLT)	111.10	111.70	-1.61	10	3.47
Gold (spot)	1,291.36	1,434.87	-3.59	12	-12.53
$EURUSD	1.3865	1.3200	2.67	7	2.51
Oil (CL)	99.74	94.30	0.82	2	-3.17

Comments:

* Monthly MoM is turning up again for the S&P 500. Bull markets do not give up easily. Most major markets remain well above their monthly key levels, so they are not even close to turning bearish. But a lengthy period of sideways action is still likely for these indexes.

* Bonds are coming very close to their monthly key reversal level. Can they turn bullish? It will take a monthly close above 111.70 for TLT

Monthly key reversal levels for other world markets:

Monthly	Current	Key (M)	MoM (M)	Months	% Ch
Australia (AORD)	5,470.80	4,899.12	4.50	18	20.62
Brazil (BOVESPA)	51,627.00	54,198.10	-1.98	23	-5.25
Canada (TSX)	14,651.90	12,943.83	5.79	15	15.00
China (SSEC)	2,026.36	2,242.97	-1.35	47	-21.39
Dow Jones Industrials	16,580.84	14,567.30	6.32	30	38.73
France (CAC40)	4,487.39	3,845.19	5.01	16	21.19
Gold stocks (XAU)	92.26	131.06	-3.85	28	-49.02
Hong Kong (HSI)	22,133.97	21,422.44	0.72	18	2.60
India (SENSEX)	22,417.80	19,094.91	4.52	19	19.34
Indonesia (JCI)	4,840.15	4,188.19	0.60	58	138.80
Italy (MIB)	21,783.38	17,399.58	5.89	7	24.61
Malaysia (KLCI)	1,871.52	1,684.89	5.02	57	59.29
Mexico (IPC)	40,711.56	41,794.88	-0.93	2	4.98
Russell 2000	1,126.86	986.25	8.03	27	41.39
Russia (RSX)	22.71	27.52	-1.17	3	-9.38
Singapore (STI)	3,264.71	3,042.42	-0.30	0	0.00
South Africa (JOHA)	48,870.10	39,584.26	8.48	54	85.39
South Korea (KOSPI)	1,961.79	1,901.20	0.37	7	-1.79
Spain (IBEX35)	10,459.00	8,709.06	5.56	7	13.96
Switzerland (SMI)	8,476.70	7,400.57	5.89	21	32.46
Turkey (TUR)	53.21	57.35	-3.81	8	7.28
Vietnam (VNM)	20.08	18.22	2.82	3	-3.83
World (MSCI)	1,687.74	1,431.62	7.44	27	36.03

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/

Comments:

* Singapore is turning bullish.

* Monthly MoM is turning up for Brazil, France, Malaysia and Turkey.

* China, Mexico and Russia are the only markets that continue to be fully bearish.

Good luck,
Danny

Key reversal levels for week of April 28, 2014

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: $EURUSD, FTSE 100 Index, key levels, Nasdaq, TLT | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of April 21, 2014

Posted by Danny on April 20, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* The Nasdaq and the Nikkei tested their Bottom1 targets last week and bounced back strongly. For the Nikkei we now see weekly MoM turn up, the first major index to do so. This is a tentative sign that the recent “correction” may be over already. But we have to see if other markets follow. For shallow corrections it is fairly typical to see Mom turn back upwards from near the zero level.

* On the daily level the S&P 500 has switched into rally mode already, with the Nikkei, FTSE100 and DAX coming very close to their daily key reversal levels as well. The Nasdaq is still lagging but has picked up positive MoM. This means we could easily see several more markets going into rally mode next week, and we may see new all time highs fairly soon.

* For other world markets we still have a mostly bullish picture, and the MSCI world index is only a few % below its all time highs. Most markets have not participated in the recent Nasdaq sell-off.

* Bonds(TLT) were rejected at their Top1 target at 111.80. We have a next higher target at 114.20 if the rally continues. MoM is still to the upside for bonds, but will start to go down if TLT keeps getting rejected at that 111 target.

* Gold continues to be in a pullback. It must close the week above $1,282.91 to avoid another bearish episode which would probably push it towards its Bottom1 target at $1185.

* Meanwhile the Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level versus the US dollar. Once the Euro moves it will probably drag gold and oil with it. Right now my indicators suggest that the next move for the Euro will be down. If so, then look for a strengthening dollar to become a drag on US stock prices as well.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, up from 20 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly	Current	Key (W)	MoM (W)	Weeks	% Ch.
Nasdaq	4,095.52	3,975.87	0.64	67	32.58
S&P 500	1,864.85	1,791.14	2.81	72	31.67
Nikkei	14,516.27	15,077.88	-2.39	5	1.84
FTSE 100	6,625.30	6,702.91	-0.89	5	1.49
DAX	9,409.71	9,122.06	0.56	3	-2.21
Bonds (TLT)	110.05	106.10	4.07	12	3.15
Gold (spot)	1,289.90	1,282.91	1.70	9	-2.14
$EURUSD	1.3805	1.3652	1.80	38	3.94
Oil (CL)	103.37	98.14	2.31	9	3.25

Latest daily key reversal levels:

17/04/2014	Current	Key (D)	MoM (D)	Days	% Ch.	Str. #
Nasdaq	4,095.52	4,192.48	-6.00	18	-3.69	8
S&P 500	1,864.85	1,842.06	-2.49	1	0.17	5
Nikkei	14,516.27	14,588.49	-4.36	8	0.56	12
FTSE 100	6,625.30	6,652.60	-1.65	7	0.52	11
DAX	9,409.71	9,483.73	-3.65	4	1.74	7
Bonds (TLT)	110.05	109.06	5.92	8	0.94	1
Gold (spot)	1,289.90	1,319.16	0.46	2	-0.97	7
$EURUSD	1.3805	1.3775	1.43	7	-0.35	6
Oil (CL)	103.37	101.14	4.99	15	2.00	18

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets	Top1	Top2	Bottom1	Bottom2
Nasdaq	4390	4531	3975	3797
S&P 500	1870	1950	1755	1641
Nikkei	15650	17220	13860	12940
FTSE 100	6800	7250	6230	5980
DAX	9800	10240	8715	8510
Bonds (TLT)	111.80	114.20	102	96.25
Gold (spot)	1424	1541	1185	1075
$EURUSD	1.3950	1.42	1.3390	1.2870
Crude Oil(CL)	104	113	91.85	86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, Nikkei, S&P 500, TLT | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of April 7, 2014

Posted by Danny on April 6, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* It was an interesting first week of April. One reader was puzzled and asking how our system can be bullish for the S&P 500 and bearish for Nasdaq. But here we are a few weeks later and the Nasdaq is already more than 5% below its recent peaks while the S&P 500 was still making new all time highs a few days ago.

* The Nikkei and the DAX are seeing weekly MoM turn upwards, and both the Nikkei and FTSE100 are coming very close to their weekly key reversal levels. So we may get back to all markets bullish if these indexes can climb a bit more next week.

* There is a new Bottom1 target for the Nasdaq at 3975.

* Gold has tested its weekly key level and is now bouncing back a bit. But the next major move for gold largely depends on the next move of the Euro, and the Euro continues to suggest more weakness ahead.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets can be picked up here.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly	Current	Key (W)	MoM (W)	Weeks	% Ch.
Nasdaq	4,127.73	3,976.56	4.45	65	33.62
S&P 500	1,865.09	1,788.65	4.02	70	31.68
Nikkei	15,063.77	15,142.56	-2.30	3	5.68
FTSE 100	6,695.60	6,718.05	-0.50	3	2.57
DAX	9,695.77	9,111.96	0.90	1	0.77
Bonds (TLT)	108.46	105.35	3.67	10	1.66
Gold (spot)	1,302.78	1,281.98	2.91	7	-1.17
$EURUSD	1.3702	1.3620	2.14	36	3.16
Oil (CL)	101.14	97.49	2.02	7	1.02

Latest daily key reversal levels:

4/04/2014	Current	Key (D)	MoM (D)	Days	% Ch.	Str. #
Nasdaq	4,127.73	4,281.18	-2.51	9	-2.94	8
S&P 500	1,865.09	1,855.71	2.84	37	2.47	1
Nikkei	15,063.77	14,662.45	3.38	4	1.30	13
FTSE 100	6,695.60	6,614.39	1.64	0	0.00	37
DAX	9,695.77	9,402.25	6.47	7	2.83	1
Bonds (TLT)	108.46	108.64	0.34	2	0.87	3
Gold (spot)	1,302.78	1,322.14	-5.79	9	-0.44	8
$EURUSD	1.3702	1.3823	-2.64	11	-0.54	7
Oil (CL)	101.14	99.43	1.23	6	-0.20	21

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets	Top1	Top2	Bottom1	Bottom2
Nasdaq	4390	4531	3975 *	3797
S&P 500	1870	1950	1755	1641
Nikkei	17220		13860	12940
FTSE 100	6800	7250	6230	5980
DAX	9800	10240	8715	8510
Bonds (TLT)	111.80	114.20	102	96.25
Gold (spot)	1424	1541	1153	1075
$EURUSD	1.3950	1.42	1.3390	1.2870
Crude Oil(CL)	104	113	91.85	86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, Nikkei, S&P 500, TLT | 2 Comments »

Key reversal levels for week of March 24, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 22, 2014

Comments for this week (the key reversal tables are below) :

* Weekly momentum (MoM) is turning down again for the Nasdaq. May have peaked for a while. This is an important signal as the Nasdaq has been one of the strongest markets in the recent months. Wait and see whether MoM can pick up again. If not then look for a test of its weekly key reversal level, currently at 3962.

* Weekly MoM is turning down for bonds (TLT) and oil (CL) as well. These markets are sputtering and need to pick up steam if their recent rallies are to continue.

* On the daily level the Nasdaq is holding only just above its key reversal level, so could go into declining mode any day. Watching this market carefully as it can easily drag other world markets lower.

* I am also watching the $EURUSD very closely. Since it touched its Top1 target at 1.3950 the euro has dropped back into declining mode on Thursday and is not far above its weekly key reversal level anymore. If it closes below 1.3598 next week then the euro will go fully bearish and that would probably have consequences for gold and oil prices.

* Gold has seen a similar drop and is testing its daily key reversal level right now. Likely to decline further if the daily key doesn’t hold. Those declines were nicely indicated by the MoM indicator turning down, as I pointed out in my mid-week comments on Tuesday. When a market has had a sizable rally, it is always a good idea to take (partial) profits as soon as MoM turns down.

* We have new Bottom1 targets for EURUSD at 1.3390 and for Oil at 91.85

* Our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets can be picked up here.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 22 stocks are bullish this week.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly	Current	Key (W)	MoM (W)	Weeks	% Ch.
Nasdaq	4,276.79	3,962.35	6.89	63	38.44
S&P 500	1,866.52	1,781.86	3.83	68	31.78
Nikkei	14,224.23	15,183.66	-2.55	1	-0.21
FTSE 100	6,557.20	6,731.84	0.19	1	0.45
DAX	9,342.94	9,368.08	0.86	1	3.27
Bonds (TLT)	108.23	104.81	3.41	8	1.45
Gold (spot)	1,334.06	1,282.55	3.90	5	1.21
$EURUSD	1.3786	1.3598	2.52	34	3.79
Oil (CL)	99.46	97.24	2.39	5	-0.66

Latest daily key reversal levels:

3/21/2014	Current	Key (D)	MoM (D)	Days	% Ch.	Str. #
Nasdaq	4,276.79	4,253.39	-0.06	3	-1.26	5
S&P 500	1,866.52	1,843.16	0.93	27	2.55	1
Nikkei	14,224.23	14,903.19	-4.88	4	-0.21	11
FTSE 100	6,557.20	6,698.38	-6.19	9	-1.98	28
DAX	9,342.94	9,427.12	-3.95	14	-1.17	12
Bonds (TLT)	108.23	106.74	2.01	7	1.43	6
Gold (spot)	1,334.06	1,322.16	0.84	50	6.90	2
$EURUSD	1.3786	1.3856	1.58	1	0.07	3
Oil (CL)	99.46	100.76	-3.96	7	1.39	8

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets	Top1	Top2	Bottom1	Bottom2
Nasdaq	4390	4531	3797	3530
S&P 500	1870	1950	1755	1641
Nikkei	17220		13860	12940
FTSE 100	6800	7250	6230	5980
DAX	9800	10240	8715	8510
Bonds (TLT)	111.80	114.20	102	96.25
Gold (spot)	1424	1541	1153	1075
$EURUSD	1.3950	1.42	1.3390 *	1.2870
Crude Oil(CL)	104	113	91.85 *	86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, TLT | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for March 19

Posted by Danny on March 19, 2014

Latest daily key reversal levels:

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W: weekly mode | %Ch.: blue = profit, orange = loss | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments:

* Several changes in our key reversal levels today.

* Nasdaq has jumped back into bullish mode. But the move is suspect as the breakout happens with MoM remaining to the downside. So could turn out to be a fake out move.

* DAX is the first market that sees MoM turn upwards, so may have bottomed for now. Daily key level at 9451 is now the first upside target.

* Gold and $EURUSD have seen nice rallies in recent weeks, but MoM is turning down on them. That means they probably peaked for a while and are setting up for a test of their daily key reversal levels. Staying cautious as long as MoM goes down.

PS: to get the key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, follow me on Twitter.

Danny

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: $EURUSD, DAX, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, TLT | Leave a Comment »

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