Comments for this week :
* Stock markets are hesitating after the recent series of new highs. On the weekly level the bull markets are intact, but in the daily key reversal levels we now see all major indexes with downward MoM, and the FTSE100 has fallen into bearish mode. This can be considered a first warning sign.
* The S&P 500 reached our Top1 target at 1950, as we tweeted live, and failed to break above it. It’s hard to tell whether this will be just a short term peak, or a level that we won’t see back for while. Either way, we now have an interesting new Top2 target for the S&P 500 at 2031
* In other world markets the Chinese markets is grabbing upward MoM and coming very close to going into bullish mode. Most markets remain well above their weekly key reversal level.
* Bonds (TLT) are trying to get into rally mode again. TLT needs a daily close above 112.54 to do so.
* Gold has strengthened further. A weekly close above $1311.12 would turn gold fully bullish, and would probably give us a good trending move. Keeping an eye on it.
* The Euro is still weak, but is not giving up too much territory. MoM is to the downside, but as long as the Euro hovers near 1.35 it wouldn’t take much to turn things around.
* Oil has finally cracked above its Top1 target at $104, so now the path is open for a climb towards 109-110, where our next price targets are.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 26 stocks are bullish this week, down from 28 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,310.65 | 4,028.87 | 2.28 | 75 | 39.54 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,936.16 | 1,827.71 | 5.53 | 80 | 36.70 | |
| Nikkei | 15,097.84 | 14,386.16 | 0.04 | 1 | -0.70 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,777.90 | 6,704.26 | 2.85 | 6 | -0.65 | |
| DAX | 9,912.87 | 9,305.46 | 4.33 | 11 | 3.02 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 112.15 | 108.72 | 4.46 | 20 | 5.12 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,276.85 | 1,311.12 | -1.96 | 2 | 2.21 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3540 | 1.3773 | -1.69 | 4 | -1.09 | |
| Oil (CL) | 106.91 | 99.76 | 1.79 | 17 | 6.78 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 6/13/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,310.65 | 4,227.45 | 6.28 | 16 | 4.22 | 2 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,936.16 | 1,918.69 | 5.63 | 16 | 2.54 | 2 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,097.84 | 14,747.45 | 6.30 | 16 | 4.77 | 2 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,777.90 | 6,843.54 | 0.28 | 0 | 0.00 | 35 | ||
| DAX | 9,912.87 | 9,852.69 | 2.63 | 37 | 3.24 | 2 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 112.15 | 112.54 | -3.35 | 8 | 0.35 | 8 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,276.85 | 1,257.63 | -0.48 | 1 | 0.31 | 9 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3540 | 1.3662 | -3.63 | 25 | -1.51 | 11 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 106.91 | 102.50 | 5.00 | 22 | 4.91 | 1 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 2031 * | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15650 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 10240 | 10450 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 108.25 * | 102 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1160 * | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3366 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.24 | 109.97 * | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Stay tuned, Danny
Key reversal levels for week of June 30, 2014
Posted by Danny on June 29, 2014
Comments for this week :
* We have updated our page explaining the key reversal levels with a lot of new info and details for the different strategy numbers as found in the last column of the daily key tables. This should make it easier to understand and follow this approach. I hope to add more detail in the future, the page remains a work in progress.
* For those who wonder what’s the point of these tables. Well, among other things it offers an objective take on the market. And that can be very useful, for example when market sentiment differs noticeably from what the key reversal levels tell us. For example, in an early February blog post I observed how the media had become very negative about emerging markets, yet my weekly key reversal levels were starting to give buy signals for countries like Indonesia. A few weeks later there was a buy signal for India. If you bought on the next Monday you now sit on profits of 8 and 19% respectively. The system doesn’t always win, but the losses are usually small versus the profits. That’s always the main feature of a good trend following system. The small losses you take are the entrance fee you pay to get in on the big trending moves.
* Back to the key tables for this week. Weekly MoM is turning down for the DAX, so we have more markets that go into hesitating mode. Daily MoM has turned down for most stock indexes, but it is now turning back up for the Nasdaq. On outlier? Or will the other indexes follow the Nasdaq to the upside? We will find out soon.
* In other world markets weekly MoM is turning down for Brazil, France, India and Italy. That’s a warning sign, especially for India where MoM has reached a very high +9 reading.
* Bonds (TLT) are still looking for direction.
* Gold is taking a pause after its recent jump. It is holding up well so far, but will need another push higher to confirm that a new up trend is in place. Daily MoM has turned down for gold, so it could see a retest of the $1290 breakout level before possibly heading higher.
* The Euro is going into daily bullish mode. I have been warning that Euro could surprise to the upside. If it gets back above 1.38 then a short covering rally could quickly take it higher and turn the Euro fully bullish. It is that scenario that is probably pressuring European stocks for the moment.
* Oil is also pausing, but still bullish according to the key levels.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 25 stocks are bullish this week, down from 26 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Stay tuned, Danny
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Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: Brazil, France, FTSE 100 Index, gold, India, key levels, Nasdaq, TLT | Leave a Comment »