Posted by Danny on February 16, 2020
Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.
Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.
For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: outlook, reversal levels, weekly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on February 9, 2020
Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.
Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.
For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: outlook, reversal levels, weekly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on February 3, 2020
The LT wave did fairly well in January. The month started slow with some downward pressure in the first week. The subsequent stronger period in the middle of January took the market to new record highs. Then weakness kicked in for the remainder of the month, giving back all its gains since January 1st.
Here is the LT wave pattern for February:
Weakness in the first days, followed by a strong period until around the 15th. Then some mild weakness until the 21st, followed by strength until the end of February. Overall it looks pretty positive, but remember this method is experimental so don’t bet the farm on it.
Good luck.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: LT wave | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on February 2, 2020
Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.
Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.
For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: outlook, reversal levels, weekly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on January 26, 2020
Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.
Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.
For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: outlook, reversal levels, weekly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on January 19, 2020
Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.
Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.
For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: outlook, reversal levels, weekly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on January 15, 2020
Today I want to show you the simple strategy that would have beaten the Dow Industrials Index over the last 120 years. It can be written down in one line:
Walk away by selling all stocks on the last trading day of “9 years”, and come back to get fully invested in stocks on the first trading day of “2 years”.
Before I show the charts that illustrate the past performance of this system, here is how that strategy has done. The Dow closed at 48.41 on December 31st, 1899. It closed at 28538.44 on the last trading day of 2019. So, without considering dividends that can be reinvested, a trader who put $1,000 into stocks at the end of 1899 would have seen his account grow to $589,500 by the end of last year. Not bad for 120 years of patience.
But somebody who has waited in cash over the first two years of each decade would have seen his account grow to $2,183,000. That’s almost 4 times more, and with less risk because he was in the market only 80% of the time..
The reason is that stocks have often done poorly in years ending in 0 or 1. Is that just a coincidence? Maybe. But it could also be that a new decade creates new challenges and a kind of psychological uncertainty that weighs on stocks until things feel “normal” again.
Let’s have a look.
The first years of the 20th century started with a bear market. It even continued well into 1903. You didn’t miss anything by staying out in the first two years of the decade. The early 1910s were very similar. The early 1920s started with a severe bear market. Buying at the start of the “2 year” in 1922 was close to perfect.
Our trader would have enjoyed the roaring 20s and then sold on the last day of 1929, avoiding most of the crash of the early 30s. Buying at the start of 1932 wouldn’t have been easy, but it worked out. The first years of the 1940s started with a bear market again.
Our go-fishing-in-zero-years trader was lucky and as soon as he was back in 1942 the market was going up again. But in the early 50s the strategy clearly failed for the first time. Stocks just climbed through it and kept going until the end of 1959. The early 60s just gave a mild pullback that was quickly recovered, but one wouldn’t have missed much by staying out for a few years.
The early 70s and early 80s were just one long sideways period.
Buying in early 1982 was a great entry point to enjoy the 80s bull market. The first years of the 90s were a tricky sideways again. And getting back in on the first day of 1992 would have done very well. The first two years of the new millennium started with bearish activity as well.
The early 2010s came on the heels of a major bear market in 2008-9. There were some major pullbacks, and one wouldn’t have missed much by sitting out until late 2011. Once those early years were out of the way the market kept climbing until its current peak near 29000.
Can we expect another weak two year period now? I don’t know, but after gains of this magnitude I don’t think anyone would be surprised by a serious correction in the next couple of years. It doesn’t have to start right away. In the year 2000 some indexes kept climbing until March. How deep can it drop? As an educated guess my vote would go to a drop to 25000 or 22000 for the Dow Industrials, and followed by a climb to 50k. But feel welcome to dream of other scenarios…
Good luck.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: Dow 50k, Dow Industrials, zero years | 3 Comments »
Posted by Danny on January 12, 2020
Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.
Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.
For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: outlook, reversal levels, weekly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on January 5, 2020
Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.
Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.
For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: outlook, reversal levels, weekly | Leave a Comment »
Outlook for Feb 24
Posted by Danny on February 24, 2020
Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.
Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.
For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.
Share this:
Like this:
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: outlook, reversal levels, weekly | Leave a Comment »