LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Markets are bending, will they break?

Posted by Danny on March 27, 2017

Stocks made a significant dip last week and important support levels are giving way. The continuation of the rally that started in November is now questionable. Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily) 7_8_2015 - 3_24_2017

Nasdaq is trying to stay above the important 5800 support level. But all my indicators keep pointing down, showing a strong possibility for more downside action to come. Once the Earl (blue line) turns back up we will have a first indication of a tradeable bottom. So, better be patient here. The LT wave has been working like a Swiss clock so far this month. If it continues that way then we are likely to get a low today followed by several days rebound. Let’s see.

My more long term ELC indicator is still negative. I put it out on Twitter from time to time, this is the latest:

Once the ELC turns higher we can become more confident that a next leg higher is starting. Until that happens I wouldn’t be too aggressive and just wait. The vigor of any rebounds after down swings will also give us important clues.

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Outlook for week of March 27

Posted by Danny on March 26, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

We got a 1% down day, what next?

Posted by Danny on March 22, 2017

The S&P 500 dropped 1.2% yesterday and this ends a 109 day streak without 1% drop. This is only the 13th such +100 day period since 1950 for the S&P, see my February post.
This drop was met with panicked reactions and crash warnings on social media, but people forget that 1% down days in the S&P 500 are nothing special. Over the last 67 years the S&P 500 has had 1662 such down days, or 10% of the time. That’s about one 1% down day every two weeks on average. But traders have very short memories and when something hasn’t happened for 5 months it feels as something special already.
The previous 1% down day was 11 October 2016, do you remember it? Probably not.

What’s more interesting is what happens after such a long streak ends. Here is the updated list of +90 day periods:

1pc_down2

While most investors intuitively think that a first big down day after a long absence of such days is a bearish sign and maybe the start of a crash, history shows us otherwise. More often than not the market just keeps climbing after that first big down day. Two weeks later (10 trading days) stocks were higher 8 times out of 13. After two months (40 days) the market was higher 11/13 for an average gain of 3% ( = 19% annualized). And a year later the S&P 500 was higher 11/13 for an average gain of 14.8%.
While this doesn’t guarantee similar gains in the coming months, there is certainly no reason to believe that yesterday’s 1% down day is a very bearish omen. If anything you should probably use this drop to pick up some cheap long term call options in the coming days. That’s the counterintuitive thing to do here.

Sure, this drop does some technical damage and has probably shocked a few investors. A trend line is clearly broken and now the market will search for a bottom from which it can start to rally again. How long that healing will take is a guess at this point. I like to keep an eye on my aggregate stats for bullish and bearish stocks in S&P 500. This is what we have at the moment:

spx

The number of S&P stocks in bullish mode (red line) has dropped to 230, which is below 50% for the first time since early November. Stats have been weakening slowly since early March, very similar to what happened in Jul-Aug 2016. When the red line bottoms out it will be a first positive development and when it gets back above the blue line we can start thinking about a new sustained rally.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market test the bottom orange trend line in the coming week or so. And that’s where it will get interesting.
Patience pays.

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SKEW is high again

Posted by Danny on March 20, 2017

Stocks have been pulling back a bit in recent weeks, but so far it seems to be the “short and shallow” variant as described in my most recent post. The Nasdaq has easily held above 5800 and is already pushing back towards its recent highs. This means the scenario for a further 5% surge before summer stays firmly on the table and is gaining traction. Let’s have a look at the current S&P 500 chart:

^SP500 (Daily) 6_17_2015 - 3_17_2017

The trend line since the November lows is being tested but holds up well. The Earl (blue line) has bottomed out and is headed higher, this is short term bullish. The slower Earl2 (orange line) has a bearish divergence in place and that is a medium term warning sign. The MoM indicator is back in the neutral zone and can go either way. The bearish divergence in the Earl2 indicates a serious risk for a significant pullback, but it would get invalidated if the Earl2 turns back up near the neutral line. That would probably happen if the S&P 500 climbs above the March 1 highs. So, what will it be? This is the kind of situations where keeping an eye on investors’ mood is most important.

Right now lots of technical traders probably see a strong potential for a sharp pullback if the blue trend line gives way. And that’s why the CBOE SKEW index reached a new all time high last Friday. This means traders are overpaying for “crash insurance”. But, as I pointed out in this article a few years ago, major crashes are typically preceded by a period of relatively low SKEW readings. When there is widespread confidence and feel-good about the economy then people don’t buy crash insurance puts. Then SKEW becomes low and complacence high. But that’s not what we see at the moment. Here is a chart showing the recent years evolution of SKEW index:

SKEW

The early 2015 highs were accompanied by relatively lower SKEW values for months and that’s when we got some significant drops later that year. Then SKEW reached new record highs in the days before the Brexit referendum, as investors were buying crash insurance again, but most of that crash insurance became worthless as the market surged to new highs in the ensuing weeks. More often than not overpriced cash insurance does not pay off. But bears keep trying and now we have record high SKEW again. Will their crash bets pay off this time? If history is a guide then the answer is: probably not.
And in that case we can expect something like this:

spw

On a breakout above the March 1 highs the market will probably head for the upper boundary of its trend channel (blue) since the early 2016 lows. That boundary is currently in the 2500-600 area, so that would be my initial target for such a move.

This bullish case would go on the back burner if the S&P 500 makes a close below 2350. Such a failure could come this week, because our LT wave for March suggests weakness until the 29th. If no downside action is seen and the bullish scenario can survive this weaker period then we are probably headed for a mad April. Be ready.

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

Outlook for week of March 20

Posted by Danny on March 20, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for week of March 13

Posted by Danny on March 12, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

Stocktwits is overtaking Zerohedge

Posted by Danny on March 7, 2017

Stocks are pulling back a bit since their March 1 peaks, but nothing dramatic so far. The S&P 500 has now gone 99 trading days without a 1% down day, so if stocks don’t drop today this move will join the 100 day club. That hasn’t happened since 1995.
Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily) 6_29_2015 - 3_6_2017

All my indicators have turned down, so March 1 may have been a major peak. But we have to watch carefully what happens next here. If the current pullback stays short and shallow or sideways then it will probably be followed by another 5% surge higher. Such a shallow pullback could see Nasdaq test 5800, but not much lower than that.
This market has been doing all the right things, as described in my December post, and that means a final strong advance is quickly becoming the base scenario. One of the main conditions is an S&P push to 2500-600 before summer and that doesn’t look so crazy anymore.

If we get that kind of blow-off peak scenario then we should start seeing the typical symptoms that come with it. Look for reports that a lot of new investors are opening brokerage accounts and buying stocks for the first time. And a much more buoyant mood on popular investor hangouts like Stocktwits. At the same time look for known bearish sites to become less popular. Once retail investors cave in and put more of their savings into stocks their appetite for bad news, bubble warnings and bearish commentary goes down. I like to use Google Trends to keep an eye on it. For years I have been expecting that Stocktwits would become more popular than Zerohedge by the time this market peaks. And that seems to be happening now:

zeroh-sttw

(source: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=stocktwits,zerohedge )

The surge for Stocktwits shows that retail investors are quickly warming up to this market. Meanwhile Zerohedge seems to have lost about 20% of its audience in recent months. If those trends continue and Stocktwits clearly overtakes Zerohedge then it will be a very significant indication. And then the difficult job will be to determine when and where this love affair with stocks will end. Such a final surge typically lasts between 8 and 18 months.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | 7 Comments »

Outlook for week of March 6

Posted by Danny on March 5, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

LT wave for March

Posted by Danny on March 1, 2017

The market has drifted sideways in the recent week and we are now going almost 100 trading days without a 1% down day in the S&P 500. That’s already the longest such streak since 1995. It will be interesting to see if this move joins the 100 club. Let’s have a look at the current S&P 500 chart:

sp500-daily-6_3_2015-2_28_2017

The rally that started in November keeps going and there is no clear sign yet that the advance may be over. The MoM indicator stays in the +8 euphoric zone, but it has turned down which means we can do some first selling at this point. If MoM drops below +8 then do some more selling. See last week’s article.
The Earl (blue line) has turned down, which suggests a pullback is coming up. But maybe it will be no more than a few days hiccup before stocks climb to another record. There is no way to tell at this point, we just need to be aware that this market can suddenly go into blow-off mode here. Such a move becomes very difficult to read in its final stages, and traders who find themselves on the wrong side of it are typically given little or no chances to get out without significant losses.

The LT wave for March doesn’t paint an easy picture either:

ltwavemar2017

The LT wave for February was partially successful. After some hesitation in the first week stocks surged to new records in the expected strong period until the 15th. The next expected weak period didn’t produce any decline and the final days saw new records again.
For March there is a peak value on the 1st followed by projected weakness until the 10th. Then a strong period until the 15th or 16th. A second weak period is expected until the 27th.
The lowest LT wave value of the month comes on the 7th, with a second low on the 27th. Peak values come on the 1st, 13th and 29th.

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Outlook for week of February 27

Posted by Danny on February 26, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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