LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Outlook for week of December 11

Posted by Danny on December 10, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

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Higher it goes

Posted by Danny on December 4, 2017

Markets have burst higher in recent weeks, taking most major indexes to new record highs. Does this mean the market has nowhere to go but up? Maybe. We will have a look into that question later in this article, but let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart first:

^COMP (Daily) 3_10_2016 - 12_1_2017

Instead of threatening to go down the Nasdaq is breaking out above the red channel it has been occupying most of the year. The longer term up trend remains firmly in place. If anything stocks are accelerating here. But how much longer?
Some warning signs remain in place. There are bearish divergences in the Earl (blue line) and Earl2 (orange line) that do not go away. This has been a painless advance for such a long time now. Some investors will probably panic as soon as we get a 5% drop from the highs some day. I would rather wait for that panic to do any new buying. But we may have plenty company when it comes to waiting for a >3% pullback.

Our LT wave for November did very poorly. It could hardly be any worse, actually. Markets climbed when we expected weakness and fell when the wave indicated strength. Will that continue to be the case? I have no idea. Here is the wave for December:

ltwaveDec2017

Weakness is projected until Dec 5, followed by a stronger period until the 22nd. The final week of the month looks weak again. This means that if we see no downside action in the next couple of days the market could just continue to march higher into xmas. And with very thin trading in the final week of the year it remains to be seen how that expected weakness will pan out.
Personally I will rather watch from the sidelines until our cycles get into gear again.

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Outlook for week of December 4

Posted by Danny on December 3, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for week of November 27

Posted by Danny on November 27, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Stocks and bitcoin

Posted by Danny on November 20, 2017

Stocks have basically gone sideways so far this month. Since the November 9 drop the S&P 500 is trying to climb back, but it looks like a tired effort. Meanwhile bullish participation continues to weaken, as reported in my weekly reversal levels outlook.

The lunar green period is about to end, so it will be interesting to see what comes next. Here is the current S&P 500 chart:

^SP500 (Daily) 2_11_2016 - 11_17_2017

This index keeps pushing into an important trendline. But my Earl indicator is showing a multi-month bearish divergence. And the slower Earl2 (orange line) keeps moving lower with no signs of a bottom. The MoM has cooled off since peaking into the +8 zone in mid October.
While all those warning signs have not resulted in any significant downside action so far, it doesn’t mean the market is becoming safe. Sometimes the real drop comes at the very end of a longer sideways period.

A few readers have asked about my bitcoin targets. Since my August post, the next target of $6430 was reached quickly. And I had one higher target, posted on Twitter a few months ago:

I would not be surprised to see stock markets and bitcoin reach important peaks together, before entering “cooling off” phases. With bitcoin now well above $8000 a move to my higher target at $9374 looks realistic here, and yes an overshoot to just below $10 is possible too. I would expect some serious profit taking if $10k is approached. Here is an updated chart:

bitcoin

Bitcoin is bumping into an overhead resistance line and a jump above $9k would look like a breakout. But false breakouts are a fairly common way of ending major bull markets. A one or two day jump to $10k that is quickly reversed would be a textbook blow-off peak. The ELC indicator has peaked out already and such a move would paint a clear bearish divergence. I will keep you posted on Twitter.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

Outlook for week of November 20

Posted by Danny on November 19, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for week of November 13

Posted by Danny on November 12, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for week of November 6

Posted by Danny on November 5, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

LT wave for November

Posted by Danny on October 30, 2017

Stocks have reached new record highs. But bullish participation has started to weaken again ( see Outlook for week of October 30). A shrinking number of stocks is carrying indexes higher and that’s always something to keep an eye on. Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart before sharing the LT wave for November:

^COMP (Daily) 2_16_2016 - 10_27_2017

The Nasdaq keeps moving within a nice channel it has been occupying for most of the year. Friday’s jump has taken the Nasdaq to the upper bound, but this is not a breakout that suggests upward acceleration.
My indicators are showing red flags as well. The Earl (blue line) shows a bearish divergence, while the slower Earl2 (orange line) has peaked and turned lower. The MoM is also on a downward trajectory after peaking out near the 8-euphoric zone. While none of this presents obstacles that cannot be overcome, it is not the kind of setup that prompts me to do fresh short term buying.

Sometimes the best strategy is wait and see. This is an aging rally and there has been no pullback worth talking about for more than year. If investing was always this safe and easy then nobody would be working.

October was not a good month for our LT wave. Expected weakness early in the month did not pan out, but projected strength in the 3rd week came right on target. Markets pulled back from record highs in the final week, when the wave suggested new weakness. But that didn’t carry on and the index bounced right back in the final days. Here is the wave for November:

ltwaveNov2017

Weakness is expected until the 7th, with lowest LT wave values of the month coming on the 6th and 7th. If that brings a market low then a rebound should follow until the 17th or 20th. The final 10 days of November look weak.
Remember the LT wave is experimental, so do not bet the bank on it.

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for week of October 30

Posted by Danny on October 29, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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