Here are the monthly key reversal levels going into January 2014:
| Monthly | Current | Mode | Key (M) | MoM (M) | Months | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,176.58 | 3,307.92 | 8.99 | 49 | 93.16 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,848.36 | 1,531.01 | 8.45 | 23 | 40.83 | |
| Nikkei | 16,291.30 | 12,309.63 | 8.45 | 12 | 53.63 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,749.10 | 6,150.57 | 4.43 | 13 | 15.04 | |
| DAX | 9,552.16 | 7,703.62 | 7.89 | 22 | 39.82 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 101.86 | 113.53 | -4.25 | 6 | -6.20 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,205.25 | 1,484.69 | -5.41 | 8 | -18.36 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3777 | 1.3010 | 2.54 | 3 | 1.86 | |
| Oil (CL) | 98.42 | 101.63 | 1.51 | 1 | 6.16 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Months: months since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Observations:
* World stock markets remain long term bullish with upward momentum. But for most markets we see MoM at very optimistic +8 levels, which means there is elevated potential for a significant correction to start.
* Bonds, gold and oil remain bearish, so for long term investors it is better to wait until MoM turns up for them.
And here are the monthly key reversal levels for other world markets:
| Monthly | Current | Mode | Key (M) | MoM (M) | Months | % Ch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia (AORD) | 5,353.10 | 4,764.84 | 6.08 | 14 | 18.03 | |
| Brazil (BOVESPA) | 51,507.00 | 56,578.37 | -2.56 | 19 | -5.47 | |
| Canada (TSX) | 13,621.60 | 12,398.22 | 3.53 | 11 | 6.91 | |
| China (SSEC) | 2,115.98 | 2,311.32 | -1.10 | 43 | -17.91 | |
| Dow Jones Industrials | 16,576.66 | 14,087.45 | 7.28 | 26 | 38.70 | |
| France (CAC40) | 4,295.95 | 3,720.05 | 6.52 | 12 | 16.02 | |
| Gold stocks (XAU) | 84.15 | 145.65 | -6.13 | 24 | -53.51 | |
| Hong Kong (HSI) | 23,306.39 | 21,335.82 | 2.15 | 14 | 8.03 | |
| India (SENSEX) | 21,170.68 | 18,308.18 | 3.48 | 15 | 12.70 | |
| Indonesia (JCI) | 4,274.18 | 4,083.14 | -0.30 | 54 | 110.87 | |
| Italy (MIB) | 18,967.70 | 16,207.22 | 3.98 | 3 | 8.50 | |
| Malaysia (KLCI) | 1,866.96 | 1,635.37 | 6.05 | 53 | 58.90 | |
| Mexico (IPC) | 42,727.09 | 39,337.24 | -0.38 | 53 | 57.82 | |
| Russell 2000 | 1,163.64 | 939.44 | 8.46 | 23 | 46.00 | |
| Singapore (STI) | 3,167.43 | 3,036.31 | 0.51 | 17 | 4.32 | |
| South Africa (JOHA) | 46,256.23 | 37,951.35 | 8.26 | 50 | 75.48 | |
| South Korea (KOSPI) | 2,011.34 | 1,890.61 | 0.93 | 3 | 0.69 | |
| Spain (IBEX35) | 9,916.70 | 8,185.04 | 4.73 | 3 | 8.05 | |
| Switzerland (SMI) | 8,203.00 | 7,177.06 | 7.72 | 17 | 28.19 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Months: months since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Comments:
* Most world markets remain bullish with upward momentum (MoM).
* For gold stocks (XAU index) we see MoM turn up after a 24 month bear market. That means gold stocks are a speculative long term buy at this point.
Good luck and a happy 2014,
Danny
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