How is Athens?
Posted by Danny on September 3, 2012
Markets have held up nicely last week, and appear ready for another swing to the upside.
That being said, we are entering September-October, a season with a history of serving nasty surprises to the downside.
Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq index (click for larger image):
The recent lunar Red Period has produced a sideways move, and a new Green Period is about to start this week.
My Earl momentum indicator has also fallen into bottom territory, so all appears to be nicely set for a rise to 3200 in the next couple of weeks.
A failure to go up would signal weakness and likely lead to a drop that takes us back down to 2900 or worse.
So, I would keep a stop-loss somewhere near the 3000 level.
As chart of the week we take a look at the Athens stock exchange (click for larger image):
This is a weekly chart. Notice how the Greek market has lost 90% of its value since 2007. How much lower can it go?
Probably not much lower.
My Earl2 indicator is clearly improving and showing a bullish divergence with prices. The faster Earl is not in buy territory, but is likely to get there before the end of the year.
So, there is no need to rush in at this point, but get ready.
For example, if news comes that Greece will leave the Euro, that could very well be a trigger to move this market higher.
If you think that’s crazy, then consider that in neighboring Turkey, which is not hindered by Euro membership, the stock market is up 30% year to date. And their unemployment rate is now down to 8%. That’s something to think about.