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Show Time

Posted by Dan on July 17, 2017

The S&P 500 has broken out to new record highs, nicely in line with what we shared last week. But the Nasdaq index has not made it to new highs yet. Here is the current chart:

^COMP (Daily) 10_13_2015 - 7_14_2017

The Earl and MoM indicators are clearly going up, with no signs of topping out yet. But the slower Earl2 (orange line) is merely flatlining below the zero line, which is exactly what I warned for in last week’s post. We need to watch carefully what happens in the next week or two. If the markets just chop around with S&P 500 stalling below 2500 and Nasdaq staying near the 6400 level, then it would indicate a very weak market with little or no fuel left. Then the Earl2 would probably continue to negate the new highs and that would be an ugly setup heading into August-September. See late September 2016 for a recent example of such an Earl2 non-confirmation. Stocks climbed to marginal new highs after a pullback, but the Earl2 stayed very weak below the zero line. A more significant second dip followed suit.

A more vigorous advance with S&P climbing above 2500 would reduce this concern. So it is show time.

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