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Higher it goes

Posted by Dan on December 4, 2017

Markets have burst higher in recent weeks, taking most major indexes to new record highs. Does this mean the market has nowhere to go but up? Maybe. We will have a look into that question later in this article, but let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart first:

^COMP (Daily) 3_10_2016 - 12_1_2017

Instead of threatening to go down the Nasdaq is breaking out above the red channel it has been occupying most of the year. The longer term up trend remains firmly in place. If anything stocks are accelerating here. But how much longer?
Some warning signs remain in place. There are bearish divergences in the Earl (blue line) and Earl2 (orange line) that do not go away. This has been a painless advance for such a long time now. Some investors will probably panic as soon as we get a 5% drop from the highs some day. I would rather wait for that panic to do any new buying. But we may have plenty company when it comes to waiting for a >3% pullback.

Our LT wave for November did very poorly. It could hardly be any worse, actually. Markets climbed when we expected weakness and fell when the wave indicated strength. Will that continue to be the case? I have no idea. Here is the wave for December:


Weakness is projected until Dec 5, followed by a stronger period until the 22nd. The final week of the month looks weak again. This means that if we see no downside action in the next couple of days the market could just continue to march higher into xmas. And with very thin trading in the final week of the year it remains to be seen how that expected weakness will pan out.
Personally I will rather watch from the sidelines until our cycles get into gear again.

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