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LT wave for Dec 2021

Posted by Danny on December 1, 2021

The LT wave did pretty well in November.

Expected strength until the 11th lifted the S&P 500 above 4700 for the first time. But then the move stalled as the weaker period kicked in. The expected strength after the 21st caused a last jump to new record high on the 22nd, but then there was no follow through. This suggests the path of least resistance is turning down and the month ended with some significant down days, which came with the drop in the blue line.

How it is expected to continue is shown in the LT wave chart for December:


The wave stays positive until around the 9th, so I think the market will try to bounce back again in the coming week. If that rebound is weak then it will be reason for extra caution in the subsequent weaker period from the 10th until around the 20th. A Santa rally is projected to come in the final week, but from what level will it start?

It should be an interesting month and if the path of least resistance has indeed turned down then we should see further clues.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

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LT wave for August

Posted by Danny on August 2, 2018

Our LT wave had a mediocre month in July.

Expected weakness until the 10th did not pan out, with the market breaking out to the upside on the 6th already. Expected strong period until the 22nd did work out but extended well beyond that date with S&P 500 peaking on the 25th before projected weakness started kicking in. Not a terrible month, but the timing was off by several days.

Here is the LT wave chart for August:


The wave projects ongoing weakness until around the 7th followed by a stronger period until the 17th. The second half of August is expected to be weaker again. The patter is quite similar to the LT wave for July.
Highest daily value comes on the 12th, with lowest values on the 5th and 20th. If the mid-month strong period does not produces a new high (> July high) then the subsequent weak period could be more damaging than the LT wave suggests. Weak periods have mainly given us sideways action in the recent month. That would probably change if we get a lower high and more bearish sentiment.

Good luck.

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LT wave for April

Posted by Danny on April 2, 2018

Markets are going through another significant downswing. Volatility has been high compared to what traders got used to in 2017. This was of course inevitable, and it is something I was watching as an indication that we are getting into the late stages of a multi-year bull market. See: Updated long term scenarios and charts.

So, what’s next? Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily) 6_14_2016 - 3_29_2018

The long term blue trend line in Nasdaq is clearly broken. But the Nasdaq is still in a higher highs and higher lows sequence, so it’s too early to declare the end of the bull market in this index.
The Earl (blue line) is turning up from a major low. The slower Earl2 (orange line) is still dropping fast, but well into bottom territory. The MoM indicator has fallen into the blue pessimistic zone (<-5), where major buying opportunities are usually found. Once the MoM turns back up we will have a nice setup to do some cautious buying here.

If major indexes drop below their February lows, then more bearish scenarios would gain traction. That wouldn't rule out new record highs later on, but it would probably push them further back in time.

Our lunar cycle has been on fire so far this year, so that's something to keep an eye on as well. A new green period starts later this week, so it will be interesting to see if it keeps rolling on: lunar cycle tracking page.

Our LT wave did a decent job for March. The peak early in the month came with several days delay, but the subsequent weak period ended on target at March 26.
Here is the LT wave for April:


There are no outstanding peaks or lows in the projection for April, which suggests volatility will drop. We see a period of mild weakness until the 12th, followed by a more positive bias for the remainder of April. The lowest LT wave value comes on the 4th, and there is no daily peak value worth talking about.
If the wave holds up then I would look for a low in the first trading days of this week, but probably not a major new low. And then a very gradual recovery that could lift the S&P 500 back to near the 2700 area.
Let’s see.

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LT wave for January

Posted by Danny on January 2, 2018

Markets have continued to trade in “painless” fashion, just grinding higher without corrections worth talking about. Naturally this will not continue forever and it may end sooner rather than later. Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily) 3_18_2016 - 12_29_2017

The latest all time highs came just before christmas. As long as the blue trend line stays intact there is no problem, but once it gets broken a significant correction will be highly likely. The Earl indicator (blue line) has turned down again, indicating a downturn may have started a week ago. The slower Earl2 (orange line) has been weakening for several month already. This is still not a setup that wants me to do more new buying. The risk/reward ratio is just too poor here.

After weak performance for November our LT wave for December has been close to perfect. Here is the LT wave for January:


Expected weakness until Dec 5 was right on the mark and followed by a market advance throughout the expected strong period until Dec 22. Weakness in final week came true as well. Doesn’t get much better.
For January the LT wave projects strength until around the 10th followed by weakness for the rest of the month (with some possible bounce around the 20th). Highest LT wave value comes on the 7th with the lowest coming on the 25th. If we do not see new record highs in the first 10 days of the month then the bull run may be over and the rest of January could be down sharply. We really need to watch the long term trend line (see chart above) in that case.

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LT wave for November

Posted by Danny on October 30, 2017

Stocks have reached new record highs. But bullish participation has started to weaken again ( see Outlook for week of October 30). A shrinking number of stocks is carrying indexes higher and that’s always something to keep an eye on. Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart before sharing the LT wave for November:

^COMP (Daily) 2_16_2016 - 10_27_2017

The Nasdaq keeps moving within a nice channel it has been occupying for most of the year. Friday’s jump has taken the Nasdaq to the upper bound, but this is not a breakout that suggests upward acceleration.
My indicators are showing red flags as well. The Earl (blue line) shows a bearish divergence, while the slower Earl2 (orange line) has peaked and turned lower. The MoM is also on a downward trajectory after peaking out near the 8-euphoric zone. While none of this presents obstacles that cannot be overcome, it is not the kind of setup that prompts me to do fresh short term buying.

Sometimes the best strategy is wait and see. This is an aging rally and there has been no pullback worth talking about for more than year. If investing was always this safe and easy then nobody would be working.

October was not a good month for our LT wave. Expected weakness early in the month did not pan out, but projected strength in the 3rd week came right on target. Markets pulled back from record highs in the final week, when the wave suggested new weakness. But that didn’t carry on and the index bounced right back in the final days. Here is the wave for November:


Weakness is expected until the 7th, with lowest LT wave values of the month coming on the 6th and 7th. If that brings a market low then a rebound should follow until the 17th or 20th. The final 10 days of November look weak.
Remember the LT wave is experimental, so do not bet the bank on it.

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The Euro and the Nasdaq

Posted by Danny on September 11, 2017

Stock markets are stagnating just below their recent record highs. The Nasdaq gained 89 points in the recent lunar red period, which is the best performance in a red period since early February. Is this the start of another major rally? Or just a fake-out before a significant decline? It is hard to tell right now. Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily) 11_24_2015 - 9_8_2017

Since our previous review of Nasdaq the bearish scenario has been avoided and the long term up trend line (blue) has held. The odds of a continuing bull market have gone up, but we still don’t see a sustained breakout above 6400. So, it’s too early to bury the bearish scenario.

We are starting a new lunar green period and our LT wave for September is positive for the coming weeks. But my Earl indicator has turned down with the MoM also stagnating at high level. So, I don’t know what will happen next. Something has got to give… Another rally to new highs is certainly feasible. But a downturn with sudden acceleration on break below 6200 is equally likely. We may even see the “path of max confusion” with major indexes eking out new highs for a day or two before turning down rather sharply. I would just wait for the inevitable breakout (up or down) and keep my powder dry until the uncertainty starts clearing.

As chart of the week I have chosen a monthly EURUSD chart:


The Euro has been in a long term down trend (blue channel) since 2008. We see a strong rebound since the beginning of 2017, but now the Euro is bumping into the 1.20 zone, which has been a major support-resistance level for almost 20 years. I would not expect the Euro to break above this major resistance level on its first attempt. A peak as high as 1.22 or 1.23 is possible, but I would look for a significant pullback before the Euro can possibly break higher in 2018 or later. A multi-month pause may be up next, but I think a pullback to 1.12 is the base scenario for now. What could cause the Euro to weaken versus the $US? I think the upcoming “quantitative squeezing” is a prime candidate. If the Fed starts reducing their balance sheet, as they already announced, then it will make US$ more scarce. Simple supply and demand would then push the $ higher, especially if other central banks are waiting with this QS step. I plan to do an article on this “quantitative squeezing” and what consequences it will have for stocks and bonds. The EURUSD chart is something we will have to keep an eye on.

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Did the market peak?

Posted by Danny on August 21, 2017

Stock markets remain under some pressure, but overall the pullback is still small. It is amazing how quickly investors’ talk has changed to crash predictions, which makes me think there is more upside to come before we see a more serious decline. Here is the current S&P 500 chart:

^SP500 (Daily) 11_5_2015 - 8_18_2017

The S&P 500 is currently testing major support near 2420. A drop below 2400 would definitely not look good, but as long as that doesn’t happen we better the possibility of another rally here. All my indicators are in the bottom zone but not turning up yet. If the S&P can hold above 2400 for a few more days then the Earl is likely to turn up first, with MoM following suit. But that remains to be seen, of course. We are in a lunar green period and our LT wave goes strongly positive this week. That “should” give us at least some rebound rally and if that rally is very weak then it would be a very bearish sign.

The solar eclipse over the US will gather some attention today, even on Wall Street. I wrote about this eclipse a few months ago, so you may want to check out that article. See also my older article: Eclipses and the Stock Market. Basically, the historic tendency has been for stocks to drop in the lunar red period that comes two weeks before a solar eclipse. The Nasdaq dropped 206 points in the lunar red period that ended on August 11, again confirming that idea. And then the market tends to climb in the green period containing the eclipse itself. We will find out this week if that happens again.

That wouldn’t rule out a further correction or even bear market in September or October, but I wouldn’t worry too much as long as the 2400 level holds in the S&P 500.

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So bitcoin hits my long term target

Posted by Danny on August 14, 2017

Normally I write about bitcoin once a year, but since my last post in May the cryptos have become a very fast market and now my long term price target of $4246 is being reached. So, I will give a quick update and some new price targets.
But first I want to take a look at stock markets where some interesting things are happening too. Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily) 10_27_2015 - 8_11_2017

Nasdaq has reached 6400 and S&P 500 has stagnated just below 2500, which was the base scenario I mentioned a month ago. Markets had a quick dip last week. Nothing unusual, the S&P was down 1.4% for the week, but people have become so accustomed to low volatility that this was enough to get some traders panicked already. What are those traders going to do if the markets are down more than 2 or 3% in a week (or day)? We will find out some day.
Long term trend lines in Nasdaq and S&P and are being tested but not broken yet. As long as that is the case we better assume that the bull run is ongoing. We are more likely than not to get a rebound rally here. We are starting a new lunar green period and the Earl indicator is in bottom territory (but not turning up yet). Whether that rebound will be weak or strong I don’t know. A sustained drop below 6200 would not look good and then the chances for a rebound rally would dwindle quickly.
Keep an eye on August 23rd, when our LT wave will peak for August. If that paints any kind of high (rebound high, double top or even all time high) then we could very well see a new downturn in the ensuing days.

So, what about those bitcoins? In February 2014 I posted price targets based on my reversal levels calculations. Bitcoin was trading above $600 back then, but my bottom target of $180 was nicely reached by early 2015 and then bitcoin started climbing again. I reiterated my long term buy signal in October 2015, when you could still buy bitcoin at $280. Of course we had to wait longer to get to my top targets of $2457 and $4246, but here we are with bitcoin knocking on $4200 over the weekend. So, does this mean the move is now over?
I really don’t know here, because the $4000 level is a very critical juncture in the long term chart:


Some people are warning about parabolic moves and bubbles already, but that’s because they are looking at a linear scaled chart. Moves of this magnitude can only be judged on a semi-log scale chart. What we see here is a sustained (but very high) rate of change, with the move confined to a rather narrow channel since 2015. The same rate of change it also held throughout 2012 before going parabolic in 2013. A sustained breakout above $4000 that quickly heads for $5000+ would start a parabolic move like in 2013. And then it can go above $10k. A failure to do so would probably give us a peak near my $4246 target and be followed by a significant decline when traders notice that the steep rally has ended.
Both scenarios have 50/50 chance at the moment, so if you hold bitcoin from a much lower cost base then I would sell some and hold the rest at zero cost base. A tulip mania type move is possible here and then bitcoin could reach $10k or $20k before a big panic.

Meanwhile my method shows two new price targets: $6430 could become relevant as a next top target or as a resistance zone on the way to even higher levels. And there is a bottom target at $1470. This would come into play if we get a big drop. Bear in mind, not all my targets and forecasts will work out. I am probably due for some bad calls on bitcoin.

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Ready for 2500

Posted by Danny on July 11, 2017

In my last post I recommended caution and wanted to see how the market gets through the lunar red period. Muddling through without further damage to the longer term uptrend would set us up for another rally in July-August.
That seems to be what we have got and if the market holds up a few more days then another rally will become the base scenario. Here is the current S&P 500 chart:

^SP500 (Daily) 10_5_2015 - 7_10_2017

The 2400 support level has held up well so far. It was tested twice but didn’t break. My Earl indicator (blue line) has bottomed out, which sets the stage for another rally. But the slower Earl2 (orange line) is still headed lower just below the zero line. The MoM indicator is also turning up from the yellow neutral zone.
After an extended bull move it is not unusual for the Earl2 to negate the final rally of the move and just stay flat near the zero line. That could be exactly what we are seeing here. Another rally would probably take this index up to just below 2500 (blue circle) in August and the Earl2 might completely negate that move. If that comes to pass we will have a bearish setup that could be very dangerous for the remainder of the year.
But first things first. The setup favors another rally and we will be starting a new lunar green period. The LT wave will also improve after the middle of the week. If we get the rally I would look for 2500 in August and possibly a major peak. If the rally fails quickly and the S&P drops below 2400 then we will know a bigger decline has already started.

I also want to show you a pattern that is showing up in the S&P since the early 2016 correction lows. The first rally off those lows peaked in August (negating the two day Brexit drops as an aberration) and was followed by a 3 month sideways.
Then the markets rallied 4 months, followed by 6 weeks of sideways action. And then the market rallied another 2 months, now followed by 3 weeks of sideways action (so far).
So, the rallies have been getting shorter and weaker and the sideways patterns that follow them have become shorter as well. The moves seem to halve in length with each iteration. If this self-similar pattern continues for another round then we should now start a 1 month rally with a peak somewhere in mid August. Here is a more close-up chart:


A move well above 2500 or a drop below 2400 would tell us something else is going on. So I wouldn’t bet the bank on this, just keeping my eyes open.

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Get ready for the August eclipse

Posted by Danny on June 14, 2017

Despite some air pockets the US stock indexes keep looking up. The recent lunar red period produced a 35 point loss for the Nasdaq and we have started a new green period. There will be total solar eclipse over the USA in August and it will probably get plenty media attention. So, we will have a good look later on in this article but first I want to share the current S&P chart:

^SP500 (Daily) 8_31_2015 - 6_13_2017

This market stays in a nice channel since the early 2016 corrections. S&P 500 is currently in the middle of the range and trying to decide whether it wants to visit the upper or lower boundary next.
The Earl indicator (blue line) has turned down, but this has only produced a sideways pause so far. The slower Earl2 (orange line) is climbing again after some hesitation. This suggests a continuing rally until we see Earl2 top out again.

Bullish participation had been weak in recent months but is now improving:


369 S&P stocks in bullish mode is the highest since early March. In healthy market advances the number of bullish stocks typically climbs above 400 (80%), like it did in February and December. If the number of bullish stocks falls back below 300 (60%) then the rally will be on hold. But as long as that doesn’t happen we better assume higher highs coming up. I keep monitoring this stat and you can find it in my weekly outlook posts on every Sunday.

So what’s up with that eclipse? Well, on August 21st there will be a total solar eclipse crossing the US from coast to coast:


Before you stash away extra sugar, water and canned tuna and sell all your stocks, remember that this has happened before and you would not be able to pinpoint those events on a long term chart of the markets unless you knew the dates. The most recent occasions were 26 February 1979 and 8 June 1918. Nothing unusual happened.

Historically, stocks markets actually perform slightly better than average in the weeks around a solar eclipse. See my old article: Eclipses and the stock market. So, if come August the market is still setting new records then some commentators may start pointing to this eclipse as the reason for a crash. Sure, there may be a market decline in September or October, but that doesn’t mean it would have anything to do with this eclipse.
I would rather watch this chart from 1987, exactly 30 years ago. Markets climbed in the first months of the year, then paused March to May and climbed to new highs in June to peak out in late August. The price action so far this year happens to be identical:


If we reach a major peak in August then I would expect it to come with significant bearish divergences and new investors’ enthusiasm pushing out doomsayers.

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