Key reversal levels for this week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,174.67 | 3,834.56 | 8.16 | 53 | 35.14 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,842.37 | 1,752.02 | 7.43 | 58 | 30.08 | |
| Nikkei | 15,912.06 | 14,684.32 | 7.98 | 59 | 68.10 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,739.90 | 6,541.16 | 1.25 | 2 | -0.16 | |
| DAX | 9,473.24 | 8,936.79 | 6.78 | 26 | 15.00 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 104.41 | 106.56 | -2.83 | 34 | -9.88 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,247.76 | 1,319.85 | -4.37 | 55 | -24.69 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3666 | 1.3448 | 2.53 | 24 | 2.89 | |
| Oil (CL) | 92.72 | 100.73 | -2.15 | 11 | -5.27 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:
* Momentum (MoM) has turned down for US and Japanese stock indexes. To give you an idea, on average MoM changes direction every 6 bars, so 6 weeks for the weekly reversals. But it varies between 1 week and over 20 weeks. So, with MoM now turning down for many stock indexes, an average 6 weeks of weakness (down or sideways) can be expected.
* For bonds (TLT) the weekly MoM is turning up. TLT is not far from its bullish reversal level at 106.56
*Oil has downward MoM again, continuing its bearish tendency.
Daily key reversal levels as of today:
| Daily | Current | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,174.67 | 4,091.01 | 4.40 | 62 | 10.81 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,842.37 | 1,812.85 | 4.29 | 15 | 1.84 | |
| Nikkei | 15,912.06 | 15,538.51 | 4.21 | 13 | 0.65 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,739.90 | 6,624.01 | 5.66 | 12 | 2.02 | |
| DAX | 9,473.24 | 9,279.52 | 5.21 | 14 | 3.61 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 104.41 | 102.40 | 0.83 | 1 | 0.62 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,247.76 | 1,218.97 | 2.20 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3666 | 1.3696 | -2.65 | 5 | 0.54 | |
| Oil (CL) | 92.72 | 96.49 | -8.48 | 6 | -2.88 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:
* Stock markets stay above their daily bearish reversal levels, but MoM is still to the downside, so it is better to remain cautious at this point.
* Bonds (TLT) have broken above their bullish reversal level last Thursday. Next target to watch is the weekly bullish reversal level (see above).
* Gold has broken above its daily key reversal level as well. A positive development, but it is only a bear market rally unless it gets above the weekly key reversal level.
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4200 | 4390 | 3530 | 3210 |
| S&P 500 | 1870 | 1926 | 1755 | 1576 |
| Nikkei | 17220 | 12710 | 10450 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7150 | 6230 | 6110 |
| DAX | 9480 | 9800 | 8715 | 7870 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 128.50 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1448 | 1540 | 1153 | 1075 |
| EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.2870 | 1.2350 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 105 | 113 | 89.50 | 86.00 |
(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* No new targets this week
* Stock indexes are still close to their Top1 targets. They may have marked the top for a while.
* Crude oil is coming close to its Bottom1 target at 89.50.
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.
Good luck,
Danny
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