LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of January 13, 2014

Posted by Danny on January 11, 2014

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,174.67 3,834.56 8.16 53 35.14
S&P 500 1,842.37 1,752.02 7.43 58 30.08
Nikkei 15,912.06 14,684.32 7.98 59 68.10
FTSE 100 6,739.90 6,541.16 1.25 2 -0.16
DAX 9,473.24 8,936.79 6.78 26 15.00
Bonds (TLT) 104.41 106.56 -2.83 34 -9.88
Gold (spot) 1,247.76 1,319.85 -4.37 55 -24.69
$EURUSD 1.3666 1.3448 2.53 24 2.89
Oil (CL) 92.72 100.73 -2.15 11 -5.27

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Momentum (MoM) has turned down for US and Japanese stock indexes. To give you an idea, on average MoM changes direction every 6 bars, so 6 weeks for the weekly reversals. But it varies between 1 week and over 20 weeks.  So, with MoM now turning down for many stock indexes, an average 6 weeks of weakness (down or sideways) can be expected.

* For bonds (TLT) the weekly MoM is turning up. TLT is not far from its bullish reversal level at 106.56

*Oil has downward MoM again, continuing its bearish tendency.

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,174.67 4,091.01 4.40 62 10.81
S&P 500 1,842.37 1,812.85 4.29 15 1.84
Nikkei 15,912.06 15,538.51 4.21 13 0.65
FTSE 100 6,739.90 6,624.01 5.66 12 2.02
DAX 9,473.24 9,279.52 5.21 14 3.61
Bonds (TLT) 104.41 102.40 0.83 1 0.62
Gold (spot) 1,247.76 1,218.97 2.20 0 0.00
$EURUSD 1.3666 1.3696 -2.65 5 0.54
Oil (CL) 92.72 96.49 -8.48 6 -2.88

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* Stock markets stay above their daily bearish reversal levels, but MoM is still to the downside, so it is better to remain cautious at this point.

* Bonds (TLT) have broken above their bullish reversal level last Thursday. Next target to watch is the weekly bullish reversal level (see above).

* Gold has broken above its daily key reversal level as well. A positive development, but it is only a bear market rally unless it gets above the weekly key reversal level.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 4390 3530 3210
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1576
Nikkei 17220 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 6110
DAX 9480 9800 8715 7870
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1153 1075
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 105 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* No new targets this week

* Stock indexes are still close to their Top1 targets. They may have marked the top for a while.

* Crude oil is coming close to its Bottom1 target at 89.50.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

 

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